Updated Food for Thought: Hot Stove Edition

A few baseball-card-related thoughts as we approach winter...

If Jon Lester signs with a team other than the Athletics—which is how it seems things will shake out—does that mean we'll never see a card of Lester in an A's uniform? This probably happens a lot, but the two players who come to mind are Reggie Jackson (Orioles) and Don Baylor (Athletics), both in 1976. Another guy who could fit this bill is Yoenis Cespedes, the slugging outfielder the Red Sox obtained in exchange for Lester. The Sox have a logjam in the outfield and the feeling is that Cespedes walks after next year.

This also brings up an interesting take on the purpose of end-of-year series like Topps Update and Topps Heritage High Numbers. Topps Update is a showcase for All-Star cards, rookies, and guys who fell through the cracks in the regular set. Heritage High Numbers is chock full of rookies and other end-of-the-bench guys who didn't get cards in the regular series. Gone are the days when traded players get cards of them in their new uniforms. Were it up to me, High Numbers and Update would be a more traditional mix of rookies and traded players. This would solve the problem of guys like Lester, Cespedes, and Nelson Cruz (whose year on the Orioles probably won't be recognized in 2015 Topps Heritage)...

...An insert set that didn't seem to hold its value is the mini set in 2014 Topps Heritage. Despite being the case hit and each card being numbered to just 100, eBay prices have fallen in the last few weeks. All of this is good news for me, as I now have 47 of the 100 subjects...

...Is Topps's design for 2015 a subtle homage to 1990's design? It'll be the 25th anniversary of that set, which could mean a possible "no-name" error, right?...

...I promise this is the last Heritage item I'll bring up for now: I've decided that the ultimate card from the Heritage set is the Maury Wills Real One autograph card. For one thing, Wills is shown as a member of the Dodgers. Secondly, he wasn't included in the 1965 Topps set, so—barring custom cards—this is as close as you're going to get to a 1965 Topps Maury Wills card. 

...Are there great card blogs still out there? From what I've read recently, collectors are more interested in posting images of their "hitz" on Twitter than talking about the bigger picture in the hobby. Is that how others see it?

Finally, I almost forgot. Remember my post in November 2013 about the future of price guides? (Read Average Real Pricing: The Future of The Price Guide.) Well, if you subscribe to Beckett's online price guide, it looks like they incorporated something like average real pricing into their tiered offerings. They're calling it the Beckett Online Price Guide Plus (very original). If it's anything like my idea for average real pricing, this is a step in the right direction. Hey Beckett, you're welcome.

The Wrong Kind of Star: Quirks in 2014 Topps Heritage

2014 Topps Heritage Mini - Zack Greinke

If you're collecting Topps Heritage this year, here's something you may not have realized. Just like in the sport it depicts, there are varying degrees of star popularity within the set. Here's what I mean. There are 13 different non-relic/non-autograph cards of superstar Mike Trout in the set. There are nine cards of Zack Greinke. By comparison, there are seven different cards of Alfonso Soriano. And just one card of guys like Mark Teixeira, Tim Lincecum, and Alex Rodriguez. And others, too. Paul Konerko has only one card. Matt Holliday and Shin-Soo Choo? One card each. Same for Jose Altuve, Anibal Sanchez, Josh Donaldson, and David Price.

Asking why there need to be so many different parallels and inserts for a set like Heritage is a question with no good answer. Instead, here are the different versions of non-relic/non-autograph cards:

1. Base card (500 cards)
2. Chrome (100 cards)
3. Chrome Refractor (same 100 cards as Chrome set)
4. Black Chrome Refractor (same 100 cards as Chrome set)
5. Gold Chrome Refractor (same 100 cards as Chrome set)
6. Purple Chrome Refractor (same 100 cards as Chrome set)
7. Walmart-exclusive Blue Border (25 subjects)
8. Target-exclusive Red Border (25 subjects)
9. Retail-exclusive Black Border (same 100 cards as Chrome set)
10. New Age Performers (20 subjects)
11. Base Action variation (25 subjects)
12. Base Logo variation (25 subjects)
13. Base Uniform variation (25 subjects)
14. Mini (100 subjects)
(I'm not counting the Black Back version of the base set, as every card on the base-set checklist is included.)

Some cards are easier to find than others. For instance, base-set SPs are seeded around one per three packs, while Mini cards show up one per case. And only some players are in some of the insert sets. For example, there are three cards in the Chrome sets that do not appear in the Mini set—Alfonso Soriano, Xander Bogaerts/Jonathan Schoop, and Nick Castellanos/Billy Hamilton. They are replaced in the Mini set by Jason Grilli, Austin Jackson, and Derek Holland.

So what gives with all this? Why are some players included in nearly every insert and parallel set, and others not represented anywhere? Well, Teixeira's been hurt. A-Rod's a pariah, banished for the season. And Lincecum has been mired in middle relief, a star in name only. But for the others—like the new-to-the-national-spotlight guys like Altuve and Donaldson—there are no good reasons for their exclusion. It's just a quirk of this year's set, one that will probably be corrected in 2015's edition.

Let's Talk About 2014 Topps Heritage High Numbers

We're a few months away, but I've started thinking about the 2014 Topps Heritage High Numbers set. Will it be an online-only factory set, or released in packs? Who will be included? Who will be overlooked? If we use the 2013 installment as a template, it's probable that each team will be represented, with somewhere between one and five cards apiece.

 Much like the "traded" sets from back in the day, the high-numbers set is mostly a showcase of young players and XRCs—although with so many draft, prospects, and minor league sets these days, there are virtually zero players who could have an XRC—with fewer traded veterans in their new uniforms. It's also a way for Topps to produce cards of players not included in the regular series. But with a checklist of only 100 cards, Topps has to be choosy about who's represented.

That said, here's a quick list of 25 players who may be part of Heritage High Numbers for 2014:

1. Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees

2. George Springer, Houston Astros

3. Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox

4. Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

5. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

6. Brock Holt, Boston Red Sox

7. Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants

8. Chase Headley, New York Yankees

9. Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers

10. Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays

11. C.J. Cron, LA Angels

12. Yangveris Solarte, San Diego Padres

13. Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates

14. Tommy La Stella, Atlanta Braves

15. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

16. Jake Petricka, Chicago White Sox

17. Joakim Soria, Detroit Tigers

18. Huston Street, LA Angels

19. Brandon McCarthy, New York Yankees

20. Jeff Samardzjia, Oakland Athletics

21. Ike Davis, Pittsburgh Pirates

22. Jose Lobaton, Washington Nationals

23. Nelson Cruz, Baltimore Orioles

24. Dellin Betances, New York Yankees

25. Oscar Taveras, St. Louis Cardinals

Card Critic: 2014 Topps Archives

Before I get into what I think about the 2014 edition of Topps Archives, a little background on the three shifts in the hobby landscape that were needed to support a weird mishmash of a set like this. 

In the summer of 1989, political scientist Francis Fukuyama published an essay in The National Interest titled "The End of History?" Fukuyama argued that Western liberal democracy marked the end of humanity's social evolution and that, contrary to Marx, democracy would be the prevailing style of government going forward.

If we replace "Western liberal democracy" with "nostalgia," this thesis could also accurately describe the approach and mind-set of Topps in 1989. Nineteen eighty-nine saw Topps's re-introduction of the Bowman brand, complete with oversized cards, a la 1953. While oversized cards were used for only the inaugural set, the design choices put forth in 1989 Bowman catered to those nostalgic adult collectors, and set the company on the path to today's hobby landscape: obsessed with retro designs, with fewer and fewer original designs and new ideas.

I could write an entire essay on the design decisions (or lack thereof) of Bowman, but let's talk about Topps Archives instead. When the brand started in 1991, it was strictly as a reprint of the 1953 set, with a few cards tacked on at the end of the checklist of players not originally included in the set (Ted Williams, Henry Aaron, Lou Boudreau, etc.). The "Ultimate 1953" set was a big hit with collectors. (So much so that Archives would pop up again in 1994 with the "Ultimate 1954" set, with a Brooklyn Dodgers set in 1995, and with mixed-years sets in 2001, and 2002, before disappearing for another 10 years.)

But while Topps was using Archives as a reprint brand for baseball (and football), the company took the innovative route and lent the Archives name to a basketball card set that predicted the direction of the brand today: a smaller set using legacy designs and heavy with contemporary stars.

The set was called "Topps Archives: The Rookies," featuring NBA players shown in their rookie years, using the baseball card designs from those years. This was significant because Topps did not create basketball cards for 10 seasons (1982-83 to 1991-92), thus missing out on a decade's worth of star rookies. I really liked this set; its concept, designs, checklist, and price per pack appealed to me as a collector (and the fact that you can still find boxes of unopened wax for under $15 is pretty cool as well).

The current iteration of Archives could not exist without a third nostalgia-tinted brand: Topps All-Time Fan Favorites. Released from 2003–2005, these sets featured popular regional favorites from the last 50 years—not necessarily each team's biggest stars. Designs included every year of the Topps canon, from 1952 on. And while the checklist got more and more tired with each passing year, the brand concept was fresh (though it did start to border on my parody idea of an Archives set comprised entirely of commons).

This combination—a yen for nostalgia, legacy designs, and a mix of contemporary and retired players on a shorter checklist—is what makes a set like Topps Archives tick.

But yes, it's a hodgepodge. The checklist is a mix of today's stars and rookies and retired Hall of Famers. The set's got a bit of history for younger collectors who don't know the legacy designs, it's got parallels (like every other Topps product), and it's got short-printed hot-stuff rookies (Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Abreu).

It's also devoid of original thought, or new ideas, or really any ideas that go outside the box. And if you don't like the designs included in the set, you're probably not going to want to collect it. The brand has also, in its three years of existence in this form (2012–2014, so far), been plagued with lousy paper stock, odd inserts (Karate Kid villain autographs, anyone?), photography shared with other sets, and eerily similar checklists from year to year.

But did I mention it has on-card autographs? Of current stars and retired fan favorites? I never wanted a Shawon Dunston reprint 1990 Topps card, but I do cherish the auto'd Dunston reprint I got in a pack of 2012 Archives. But with 2014 Topps Archives pushing $100 a box, I hope I would find an autograph of someone better than Shawon.

This year's crop of inserts presents a nice mix of designs; my favorites are the 1969 Topps Deckle (what, no short-printed Jim Wynn or Joe Foy or their more recent equivalents Ron Gant and Alex Gordon?), and 1987 Topps Future Stars. Both of these inserts will fit nicely as I build mega master sets for both of these years (1969 Topps and 1987 Topps, respectively).

And it's here that Topps's dumpster dive into the past connects with me. I'm actively collecting cards that use a particular design to create a "mega master set." I'm doing this for a handful of years: 1965, 1969, 1976, 1978, 1986, and 1987 Topps. It adds a new wrinkle to collecting these sets and makes newer brands like All-Time Fan Favorites, Heritage, and even Archives worth paying attention to.

Have we reached the end of original thought in the hobby? Well, nostalgia is the prevailing selling point for many, if not virtually all, of the new baseball card sets in 2014. Gypsy Queen, Allen and Ginter, Heritage, Archives, Turkey Red—all of these sets are based on old designs. Topps flagship base-card designs have been interchangeable since 2010. Bowman? Ditto. And inserts in these flagship sets hark back to the legacy of each brand.

Don't let your set be a victim of repetitive photography!

So while 2014 Archives lacks the new idea to make it a memorable set, that's not a surprising development. It would be truly surprising if it did present something new.

2014 Topps Heritage Red Herrings

Though it's been off primetime network TV for a few years now, Law & Order can still be felt in pop culture. A great example is the hype and trickery surrounding 2014 Topps Heritage. A lot of noise has been made about the many hard-to-find variations in this set—found in three tiers: action, logo, and the mega-rare "throwback" uniform—so much so that collectors have become attuned to looking for them. To make things more difficult, Topps threw a handful of red herrings into the base set.

Like the slumlord who shows up at the courthouse in minute 35 can't possibly be the murderer (there are 25 minutes left in the episode, for crying out loud), these red herrings look like the variations we've all been chasing, but in fact are just these players' regular base cards.

Below are five red herrings, with a little explanation.

Derek Norris, Oakland Athletics - There are two throwback uniform variations featuring A's players—and both are shown wearing yellow jerseys—but neither of them is named Derek Norris.

Ricky Nolasco, Minnesota Twins - The action variation set features 25 of the best and brightest in the game, guys like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, and Clayton Kershaw. To make things a little more interesting, there are at three regular, base set cards that also feature action photos: Kevin Gregg, John Lackey, and Ricky Nolasco. These three are not part of the action variation checklist.

Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins - Cards with logo variations are a bit harder to notice, but again, they feature just top stars of the game. Guys like Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, Robinson Cano, Andrew McCutchen, and Giancarlo Stanton. But it's the fact that Stanton is included as a logo variation that makes the logos on the other Marlins in the base set interesting. Some are shown with a white M with "Miami" below, and some are shown, like Ozuna, with a black M and "Miami" below. Stanton's logo variation has just a white M, no "Miami."

Ryan Ludwick, Cincinnati Reds - If you're an avid Topps Heritage fan like me, you spent more than your fair share of time studying the sell sheets for this year's set. And if you did, you'll remember that the throwback uniform variation of Joey Votto was prominently featured. What make's it a throwback uniform? Votto's cap's logo is the same old-timey "Running Man" patch seen here on Ludwick's sleeve. Yes, the logo is featured on other Reds' players' base cards as well, but no other card has it featured front and center. Well, except for the mega, ultra rare throwback uniform variation of the team's biggest star.

Adam Eaton, Chicago White Sox - Eaton is not one of the game's brightest young stars. But his teammate Chris Sale is. So what gives? Well, although Eaton is definitely shown here in a throwback uniform, he's a red herring: it's his regular base card. This is important because it's a cue to collectors to be on the lookout for another player who is shown in the same throwback uni style (Sale).

UPDATED 5/9: Which Cards Made the 2014 Topps "Top 50 Rookies" Buyback Checklist?

2014 Topps is here and the past few weeks have seen multiple eBay sales of buyback rookie redemptions. The only thing is, Topps hasn't publicized which rookie cards have been included in their top 50. It begs the question: Which cards should make the "Top 50 Rookies" buyback checklist?

Here's my shortlist. I updated it to include recent eBay sales prices:

			eBay Sale $	Sold/Unsold?
1	1952	Willie Mays	$2,500.00	Unsold
2	1952	Mickey Mantle
3	1952	Ed Mathews
4	1954	Al Kaline
5	1954	Ernie Banks
6	1954	Henry Aaron
7	1955	Sandy Koufax
8	1955	Roberto Clemente
9	1955	Harmon Killebrew
10	1956	Luis Aparicio
11	1957	Jim Bunning
12	1957	Brooks Robinson
13	1957	Frank Robinson
14	1957	Don Drysdale
15	1958	Orlando Cepeda
16	1958	Roger Maris
17	1959	Bob Gibson
18	1960	Carl Yastrzemski
19	1960	Willie McCovey
20	1961	Billy Williams
21	1961	Juan Marichal
22	1962	Lou Brock
23	1962	Gaylord Perry
24	1963	Willie Stargell
25	1963	Pete Rose
26	1964	Phil Niekro
27	1965	Steve Carlton
28	1965	Joe Morgan
29	1965	Tony Perez
30	1965	Jim Hunter
31	1966	Ferguson Jenkins
32	1966	Jim Palmer
33	1967	Rod Carew
34	1967	Tom Seaver
35	1968	Johnny Bench
36	1968	Nolan Ryan	$899.00	Unsold
37	1969	Reggie Jackson
38	1972	Carlton Fisk
39	1973	Mike Schmidt	$127.50	Sold
40	1974	Dave Winfield
41	1975	Jim Rice	$46.98	Sold
42	1975	Gary Carter
43	1975	Robin Yount
44	1975	George Brett
45	1976	Dennis Eckersley
46	1978	Eddie Murray	$22.49	Sold
47	1979	Ozzie Smith
48	1980	Rickey Henderson
49	1982	Cal Ripken Jr.
50	1983	Tony Gwynn
	1984	Darryl Strawberry	$7.50	Sold
	1984	Dwight Gooden	$36.01	Sold
	1990	Frank Thomas	$51.00	Sold

Update 5/9/14 - Am I missing something here? Why is a Frank Thomas rookie card—usually $4 max—selling for $51?!? Seriously, what is wrong with this picture? The thing about all of these newer cards being included in this buyback program is that it means a more hallowed card from the Fifties (or Sixties or Seventies) is not included. Thomas I understand. Darryl Strawberry I do not.

Update 3/12/14 - Not only is it interesting that Dwight Gooden is considered a top-50 rookie, but that it sold for $36.01! If this is his card from 1984 Topps, we're talking about a $3 card, at best. Why would you pay 12 times that much for the same card? So with Gooden and Strawberry in the top 50, my thinking now is that a couple from the 1960s didn't make the cut.

Update 2/19/14 - It looks like Darryl Strawberry's 1984 Topps rookie made the cut. A redemption card recently sold for $7.50 on eBay (2/17/14). This means that (at least) one of the cards listed above is not included as a buyback.

Bolded entries are cards that have been offered for sale on eBay, confirming they're being offered as part of this buyback insert.

Taking into consideration that these cards are buybacks, that would lead me to believe that they'll all be vintage, and that Topps wouldn't go to great lengths to buy back a 1989 Topps Traded Ken Griffey Jr. card and release it as part of this set, even if you could make a legitimate case that Griffey's rookie is one of the company's top 50.

"Rookie" is a tricky word here, though, as Mays's and Mantle's 1952 cards are not technically rookies, as both players' rookies are in the 1951 Bowman set. That said, my list does not include Bowman cards; if we're including Bowman, then Albert Pujols's 2001 Bowman Chrome autographed rookie would definitely be included above.

Another point is whether Topps includes Pete Rose's rookie, or if it opts to go with someone safer, like Don Mattingly or Bert Blyleven. As a collector, you'd hope that they'd include Rose, as it's the right thing to do. But remember how Topps didn't mention Rose by name as the all-time hits leader on the backs of cards in 2013's flagship set? I distinctly remember the company line being that their action was the "right thing to do" (I'm paraphrasing here). So when it comes to Rose, the "right thing to do" has one meaning inside the walls of One Whitehall and a decidedly different meaning in the rest of the world.

It will be interesting to see whose rookies are included in the official checklist, and what sort of hoopla this set will generate.

Another update: What's also interesting about this buyback is how much these cards are reselling for. I think you can chalk the high Rice price up to a newness factor, and that the buyback redemption was pretty much unexplained at the time of the sale. I can't think of any other reason why someone would pay 5x the going rate for a Jim Rice rookie card. (In fact, the Schmidt went for about double the going rate for an ungraded version of this card.) The Ryan has been offered three times with no purchase: $1,499; $999; and $899, though all as a fixed-price "Buy it Now." The Murray, Rice, and Schmidt cards have been offered as straight auctions.

One final thing: It has not been advertised if the cards received will be raw or graded. I'm pretty sure Topps would announce the cards as graded if it were the case, so if the cards received are raw, what condition will they be in? Did someone just pay nearly $47 for a Jim Rice rookie card in very good condition?

Notes on 2014 Topps Heritage

I opened three boxes of Heritage yesterday, and here are my thoughts:

• The card stock is so much better this year than last year. A major improvement. They feel like real baseball cards, not like promotional post cards you get in the mail (see Heritage, 2013).

• A (probably) uncorrected error: There are two cards numbered 137, World Series Game 6 and Anthony Gose. From what I've found, there is no card numbered 138, though it should be Gose.

• Many packs I opened didn't have an insert or a high number or variation, but nine base cards. I like that. It puts emphasis on building the base set, rather than ripping for hits.

• There are supposed to be one relic or autographed card per box. In my three boxes I found three Clubhouse Collection jersey relics (Jose Altuve, Howie Kendrick, Fred McGriff) and one autograph (Chipper Jones). Not sure why that is.

• Box toppers: two advertising panels (which I will soon chop up and put in my set) and one original 1965 buyback (Jack Lamabe)

• I am really confused by the Photoshopped backgrounds for some of the recently traded players. What, the lasers backdrop wasn't available?

• The "1st Draft" insert set is lousy. Of the four cards in the set, two of them are of Johnny Bench. So far I've found only one of the two Benches, and Graig Nettles. Nothing against these players, but I've found three of each. No Ryans, and no other Benches.

• Going in, my thinking had been that all the variations (logo, action, uniform) would be dumb, and get in the way of collecting the base set. Not true. They're nice additions.

• I've completed about 90% of the base set, with 26 high-number SPs.

• It's interesting that Curtis Granderson is a Yankee in the Chrome insert set and a Met in the regular set. Maybe the Chrome cards went to print earlier?

• Last thing: This year's Heritage has got me thinking back to 2003's Upper Deck Vintage set, also in the 1965 Topps design. Which set is better? It's a toss-up.

Possible "Errors" in 2014 Topps Heritage

So it's been reported that 2014 Topps Heritage will pay tribute to the various errors and uncorrected errors found in the 1965 Topps set. Perhaps the most well known uncorrected error is the misspelling of Jim Kaat's name on the front of his card (Jim Katt). 

Here are a few players I'd like to see as candidates:

Jake Peevy

Matt Holiday

Anthony Goose

Justin Smoke

Jarrod Saltalamacchiado

Ryan Dumpster

Zach Mozart

Adam Laloosh

Yu Dervish

Jacoby Smellsbury

Eva Longoria 

Robinson Camo 

and, of course, 

Shin-Soo Choo Choo Coleman

Some lesser-known uncorrected errors that probably won't be in the new set: 

• Cleveland Indians' manager Birdie Tebbetts' last name misspelled on the back of his card (Tebbets). Terry Francoa, anyone?

• Kansas City A's rookie Jim Hunter's first name misspelled on the back of his card (Tim). Maybe Baddy Boshers (LA Angels rookie, card #194)?

• Cincinnati Reds listed on back of Reds team card as foe during 1964 season (instead of Chicago Cubs). This one definitely won't be reprised in this year's Heritage set since team cards weren't included.

2014 Topps Heritage Checklist Hypotheses

Updated at 12:30pm Thursday: I spaced out and forgot that there are 32 MLB teams, not 30. Figures have been updated below.

One of my favorite things to do is put together checklists for custom sets. A checklist I've been

trying to figure out—before Topps announces it in the next few weeks—is that of 2014 Topps Heritage.

From on-checklist in-jokes to creative checklisting decisions, Heritage proves interesting on an annual basis. And as I've gotten back into collecting new cards, it's usually my favorite set of the year. 2014's offering is especially fun, as it will undoubtedly celebrate the 2013 Boston Red Sox. Plus, its basis (1965 Topps) is one of the few vintage sets I've completed. Needless to say, I'm ready to complete the master set and pair it with my '65 set.

So as I put together my Heritage checklist, a few questions arise. First and foremost, how many cards will Topps allot to each team? I see this resolving in one of two ways:

• Each team gets 15 cards (including a manager card, a team card, and one doubleheader rookie card)

This option allows for 384 individual player cards, 32 managers, 32 team cards, 32 doubleheader rookie cards, leaving 20 "free" cards, 12 of which are league leaders, at least 6 are World Series, and probably the final 2 are "MLB Rookies" or AL or NL–specific doubleheader rookies.

• The teams original to 1965 Topps (Yankees, Orioles, A's, Angels, Twins, Rangers (Senators), Twins, Red Sox, White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Reds, Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Pirates, Phillies, Braves, Astros, and Cardinals) will get more cards than those teams that post-date the original set (Royals, Padres, Nationals, Brewers, Rockies, Marlins, Rays, Mariners, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays)

In this second option, only those teams original to 1965 Topps would get team and manager cards, and only a manager card if that team had a manager in the original set.

Either way, I don't see Topps including actual checklist cards on its Heritage checklist, and instead including four different checklists randomly as pack loaders. The checklist space is too limited, and the pack value is too high to waste a card slot on a checklist.

Second: League leaders will be on #1–12. World Series cards will be on #132–138. But which players will be assigned the iconic numbers from the original set? There are only a few guarantees, I think. Here they are:

#100 - Andrew McCutchen (2013 NL MVP)
#140 - Max Scherzer (2013 AL CY)
#150 - Miguel Cabrera (2013 AL MVP)
#300 - Clayton Kershaw (2013 NL CY)
#340 - Wil Myers (2013 AL ROY)
#460 - Jose Fernandez (2013 NL ROY)

It gets murky once you're beyond the award winners. Here are a few more guesses:

#350 - Derek Jeter
#200 - Bryce Harper
#400 - Mike Trout
#500 - David Ortiz

Here are my guesses for the titles of each World Series subset card:

132	Sox Crush Cards to Take Series Opener	WS Game 1
133	Wacha Carries Cards to Victory	WS Game 2
134	Cards Win in Wild Finish	WS Game 3
135	Sox Tie Series on Gomes' HR	WS Game 4
136	Lester Wins Pitchers' Duel	WS Game 5
137	Victorino Powers Sox to Title	WS Game 6
138	The Champs Celebrate at Fenway	WS Summary

Another big question will be if Topps will put Yasiel Puig on a base-checklist SP number (somewhere between #426–500) or will have him floating on the regular checklist. He's the hottest name in the hobby going into 2014, and making him a base-checklist SP adds to the chase, though also makes it at least four times less likely that you'll get him in a pack.

Finally, it's a pity that the Japan/MLB posting system had to go through an overhaul prior to Tanaka immigrating to the MLB, because this set probably won't include his Yankee rookie. It would've been something special, as one of the cards the 1965 set is known for is the Masanori Murakami rookie, and I'm sure Topps would've found a way to honor that card. So, without a significant rookie like Tanaka, will Heritage include the new White Sox first baseman, Jose Abreu? I hope so.

The Baseball Card Blog Is Alive & Well, Thank You for Asking

Thanks to our intrepid readers, The Baseball Card Blog is back! Not sure what happened there, but you may have seen this in your blogroll today...

I may not have blogged in a while, but no, I didn't up and change the topic of the blog. I'm actually still very interested in sports cards. I'm currently putting together the 1969 Topps set, I'm getting excited about the 2014 Topps Heritage set and will be on the receiving end of a full unopened case (yes, you read that right; it's the first time I've ever got a case). I'm also contemplating buying up unopened boxes of 2013 Topps Update, if just to chase the Boston Strong insert set. I'm also totally intrigued by the Top 50 Rookie Buyback redemption insert in 2014 Topps. 

What Ben's Thinking About

It's no secret: my interest in collecting sports cards waxes and wanes like the cycles of the moon. But there are certain things about the hobby that pique my interest. Here they are for the week of July 28, 2013.

1. I've had another epiphany about my card collection this week: I need to cut back. I've collected sets in the past, have an extensive Red Sox and Celtics collection — I'm trying to get one card of every player on each team since their inceptions — and have a shoebox of vintage stars. But I also have pre-war nonsports cards. And lots of Topps basketball from the 1970s. And other cards I'm quite sure what to do with. The epiphany came about because we have been doing a little spring cleaning (in the middle of the summer) and have sold a few things on eBay. Some cards have left the house this way, but it isn't satisfying. Not really.

I feel like if I'm going to make big strides in completing the Soxlopedia, as I'm calling it, then I'm going to have to make some trades. So here we are. Is there anyone out there interested in trading these days? I'd be looking for Red Sox and Celtics players, and maybe a few upgrade cards for my 1965 and 1956 Topps sets. I have some vintage stars and Hall of Famers and T218s and T118s and a huge lot of 1984 Topps baseball, which I know isn't that exciting, but let me explain.

2. I've made large strides in my "Mega Master Set" idea for 1986 and 1987 Topps baseball (and even 1977 and 1978 Topps baseball, to a lesser extent). But where I've found satisfaction in those years, I've be met with a deep sense of ennui with 1984 Topps baseball. Not that I haven't had success with 1984 Topps baseball—I have. I've just found that I don't really care very much if I finish it or not. (I'm a great salesman, I know.) I'm two cards from completing the base set, and have added the 50 cards in the 1984 style from the 2012 Topps Archives set. I've also added a few original 1984 Nestle cards, plus the Larry Bird "Missing Years" card from 2006-07 Topps Basketball, plus even some Topps Tiffany cards. And a handful of the Traded cards. All in all it's about 900 cards, give or take a few. It makes for a nice starter set on the Mega Master Set, I'd say. So, if you're interested in trading for these cards, or would like to know if I can help you with other stuff, and you have Red Sox to trade, I'm all ears. By the way, if you want to see a list of Red Sox players I still need, check out this list.

3. I've been thinking long and hard about this, but 1986 Topps is my favorite set. Ever. It was my first set, and I have cards with their fronts ripped off to varying degrees from this set than any other in my possession. So if there's some sort of Tiger Beat that cares about what I like, 1986 Topps baseball is what I like...

4. Also, here's something to consider: Did you just get $75 worth of baseball cards from that box you just paid $75 for? If not, how much value do you think you got? I bet it wasn't anywhere close to what you paid, unless you count a box's anticipation markup — my name for the traditional profit-ensuring markup that plays to the expectations and excitement of the consumer towards the product. That's probably harder to determine, right? If there are 192 cards in that box (let's say you bought Heritage), then you just paid $0.39 for each card (sure, that's a steal if you get a Sandy Koufax autograph exchange card, but you're more likely to "hit" on a relic card of Raul Ibanez). So if you can get base cards on eBay for closer to $0.07 or $0.10 apiece, then you're paying an anticipation markup of anywhere from a quarter to thirty cents per card. You might scoff at this logic, but for your $75, your box probably contains $18–$25 of value in it. It's a sobering thought, especially as I look towards 2014 Topps Heritage...

5. I just finished David Maraniss' Clemente and recommend it. Actually, if you're interested in reading it, I will make it available for trade. See the linked list above of Red Sox players I'm missing and let me know if you're interested.

Early Thoughts on 2014 Topps Heritage

Surprise, surprise—I've been thinking about next year's Topps Heritage set. This morning I had some time and put together a "probables" list for the Real One autograph set. It's fascinating to me that we as collectors will pay a premium for autographed reprints, rather than paying 30% to 50% of the cost for an autographed original. Is it really all about the Topps seal of approval?

That said, here is a first-draft list of who I think will be included on the Real One autograph checklist for 2014 Topps Heritage. Odds of their inclusion are in parentheses.

Stars
Joe Morgan (2-1) - Hall of Fame second baseman's rookie seems like a no-brainer
Jim Bunning (3-1) - Hall of Famer and former U.S. Senator with time on his hands
Al McBean (10-1) - All-star in 1964
Jim Bouton (10-1) - Is Bouton still a baseball pariah?
Mike Shannon (5-1) - Popular St. Louis Cardinals personality
Juan Marichal (3-1) - Hall of Famer
Jim Kaat (5-1) - Member of the "Hall of Very Good"
Willie Mays (2-1) - If he's still under contract with Topps, I see Mays being a cornerstone in this set, as he earned the MVP award in 1965
Sandy Koufax (5-1) - What would it take to get Sandy Koufax in this set?
Frank Robinson (10-1) - I'm on the fence about this one. He's participated in a few of Heritage sets in the past.
Yogi Berra (3-1): 1965 was his last card as an active player. Seems like a no-brainer to include him here.
Bob Gibson (5-1): Heritage regular in the last few years.
Whitey Ford (5-1): Mainstay of Heritage autograph lineups.
Al Kaline (2-1): Heritage mainstay. More of a shock if he's not included.
Common players (1-2) - Topps autograph insert sets for Heritage are usually chock'o'block with common players. Heritage '65 should be no exception.

I recognize that Topps does an autograph insert set in Heritage as a way to celebrate and remember the individual players included in the original set for that year. Stockpiling stars is not really the point. So with that in mind, here are the 1950s and 1960s original stars and notables included in Heritage autographs checklists, starting in 2001.

The 2001 and 2002 checklists featured a mix of original and current players, with all original players being stars. There was a shift for the 2003 checklist, where only three current stars were included (Lance Berkman, Jose Cruz Jr., and Jimmy Rollins). The rest of the checklist was filled in with common players from the original set. From 2004 on, Topps used a balanced checklist of original and current players.

'52 Heritage (2001): Pafko, Thomson, Snider, Groat, Dom DiMaggio, Slaughter, McDougald, Bauer, Sauer, Wilhelm, Garagiola, Sain, Irvin, Minoso, Rizzuto, Roberts, Schoendienst, Mays, Spahn, Law, Roe, Vernon, Joe Mays, Simmons, Shantz — 25 out of 50

'53 Heritage (2002): Rosen, Schoendienst, Feller, Shantz, Dom DiMaggio, Slaughter, Kell, McDougald, Wilhelm, Podres, Irvin, Minoso, Rizzuto, Ford, Mays, Spahn, Berra, Roe, Carey, Dark, Black, Boone, Face — 23 out of 28

'54 Heritage (2003): Kaline, Pafko, Skowron, Shantz, Groat, Snider, Banks, Aaron, Bauer, Podres, Irvin, Rizzuto, Roe, Face, Lasorda, Law, Ford, Mays, Berra — 19 out of 45

'55 Heritage (2004): Kaline, Newcombe, Snider, Banks, Killebrew, Podres, Musial, Mays, Berra — 9 out of 34

'56 Heritage (2005): Feller, Snider, Banks, Aaron, Irvin, Berra — 6 out of 23

'57 Heritage (2006): Rhodes, Snider, Banks, F. Robinson, Parnell, Musial, Ford, Berra — 8 out of 29

'58 Heritage (2007): Kaline, B. Robinson, Zimmer, Snider, Kell, Bunning, Podres, Aparicio, Schoendienst — 9 out of 36

'59 Heritage (2008): Kaline, Skowron, Erskine, Rhodes, Snider, F. Robinson, Brosnan, Zernial, Aparicio, Kaat*, Minoso, Cepeda, Wills*, Mazeroski, Berra, Tommy Davis* — 16 out of 57

'60 Heritage (2009): McDougald, Dark — 2 out of 48

'61 Heritage (2010): Rosen, Gibson, F. Robinson, Aparicio, Schoendienst — 5 out of 36

'62 Heritage (2011): Kaline, Gibson, B. Robinson, Banks, Yost, F. Thomas, Aaron, Koufax, Musial, Pierce — 10 out of 37

'63 Heritage (2012): Gibson, Turley, Virdon, Maxwell, Brosnan, Cunningham, Logan, Marichal, Aparicio, Minoso, Cepeda, Schoendienst, Musial, Mays, McCormick, McCovey, F. Torre — 18 out of 49

'64 Heritage (2013): Mays, Musial, Cepeda, Wills*, Minoso, Tiant, Marichal, Gibson, Pierce, Richardson, Shantz, Maxwell, Groat, Banks, F. Robinson, Aaron — 16 out of 63

*Not included in the original set.

These figures only included the Real One autograph insert sets, not dual or triple or any other insert set of autographed cards included in a Heritage product. Even still, note how the number of autograph subjects fluctuates from year to year. 2009's '60 Heritage set is clearly the loser in terms of original stars: just two out of a checklist of 48 subjects (and some collectors may not even consider Alvin Dark or Gil McDougald stars). This year's set includes the most subjects at 63, and 2002's '53 Heritage checklist provided the highest likelihood of pulling an autographed card of a Hall of Famer: 11 of its 28 autograph subjects are members.

What will next year's '65 Heritage give us? Probably as large an auto checklist as '64 Heritage (at least 60 subjects, comprised of current and original players). And probably as many Heritage regulars, stars, and Hall of Fame players, with one or two surprises. Steve Carlton? Duke Snider in a Giants uni? Lou Brock? And what about signatures that include more than just a name? Or an exchange card for a personalized auto? Or an exchange for an autographed buy back? With so many options not yet explored, it will be interesting to see how Topps approaches autographs next year, something they're probably thinking about right now down on Whitehall Street.

What Ben's Thinking About

It's no secret: my interest in collecting sports cards waxes and wanes like the cycles of the moon. But there are certain things about the hobby that pique my interest. Here they are for the week of June 15, 2013.

1. I'm still marveling at the profile page our own Travis Peterson got in June's Beckett Sports Cards Monthly. Hey Topps, how long before you wake up and give this guy some sketch cards in a new product? 

2. My excitement for Topps Heritage 2014 is palpable. Not too long ago I finally put the finishing touches on my 1965 set, and since its one of the more popular Topps years, I wonder if the company is also counting down the days till its release. I'm convinced that it will be a surefire hit, especially if they include a full 72-card Embossed all-stars insert set. The Heritage line has seemed like it's been phoning it in the past few years...

3. I bought some Topps Tiffany cards a few weeks ago. No wonder I lusted after these cards as unattainable in my youth—they still look great; glossy and bright as the day they were born. Too bad the last owner was definitely a smoker. I never it would matter much if a previous owner smoked, but you can tell just from one sniff. It's kind of gross.

4. One of the biggest steals of the last few years has to be sealed Topps buybacks on eBay. Head over to our Facebook page and watch my pack break if you don't believe me. I paid $2 for that sealed pack on eBay.

5. I'm debating which vintage set to collect next. The choices are 1953, 1954, or 1955 Topps, or 1988 or 1989 Topps. I know what you're thinking: Why would anyone willingly spend money on junk wax? Well, I must've put together at least three full sets from both years back in 1988 and 1989, but I didn't save any of them. And it turns out that as I put together the mega master sets for 1986 and 1987, I'm reminded how much I like the designs from 1988 and 1989. And it would be super-cheap to accomplish, even without plunking down the $7 for a factory set.

6. I'm not sure how others feel about 2013 Topps Archives, but I don't really like the idea of mixing sports designs. Topps Basketball had some great designs in the 1970s, but that doesn't mean I'll take a shine to seeing Ted Williams on a 1972–73 card. Is it that they feel they've tapped the well of baseball designs too many times?

7. I just re-read Ken Kaiser's autobiography Planet of the Umps. Definitely recommend it to anyone looking for a quick, lively read. Makes me sad that umpires never got into a major baseball card set after 1955 Bowman. Maybe that will be our next great custom set...

8. Can I consider my 1976–79 mega master Topps sets complete without custom cards from Bob Lemke?

9. Since Topps has included mini cards as an insert set the past few years now, what will be the throwback design for 2014? My money's either on 1965, as a tie-in to the Heritage set, or a set from the 1990s, like 1992 Bowman. Or they'll pull an Upper Deck and steal a classic design from a one-time competitor. Who wouldn't love mini 1984 Donruss?

How To Save The Base Set

How long has the flagship Topps base set been dead? Since 1996? Maybe not that long, but it sure has felt like that. Instead of a checklist interspersed with All-Stars, team cards, and subsets, almost a generation of flagship base set checklists have been divided as follows: one or two series, each made up of 300 to 400 base cards of individual players, followed by a string of team cards, then designated rookie cards, then perhaps, if you're good, between five and ten "fun cards," that aren't all that fun, just action shots with different headlines. Fun subsets like Turn Back The Clock, All Stars, Record Breakers, Season Highlights, World Series, and even Father/Son are long gone. 

Instead, the base set checklist is overrun with short (or single) prints, and recently, super-short prints. Sure, finding an SP or SSP in a pack is fun, I'm not going to deny that. But when companies don't want to expand the base set checklist (thus SPs, variations, and SSPs hiding behind regular base card checklist numbers), the idea of adding a subset or two (or three or four) would mean removing a handful of rookie-card slots or end-of-the-bench players who might turn out to be diamonds in the rough.

Here's a solution. First off, don't touch the SSP idea; it's a draw for too many collectors. But instead of hidden base-checklist SPs, add subset cards as base-checklist variations. And don't short-print them, either—seed them 1:1 or 1:2, in a different pack position than inserts or SPs are traditionally placed. Packs will become livelier thanks to these accessible SPs. Although SPs in name only, the subsets would still be hidden off the regular base-set checklist. This way, the checklist holds steady at 600 or 700 cards, with a "master" base set checklist of 650 to 800 cards completely accessible to collectors not interested in spending lots of cash for expensive short prints. 

Of course, this idea may not work for all sets. A set I'm looking forward to is Heritage '65, due Spring 2014. Unless an asteroid hits Topps HQ in Lower Manhattan in the next few months, my educated guess is that the checklist will have at least 75 on-checklist SPs, with chrome and refractor parallel sets, plus the tired Heritage stable of inserts News Highlights, Highlights, Then & Now, and New Age Performers. It's incredible to me that these insert sets keep chugging along, despite wearing out their welcome years ago, but that's a topic for another day. Let's just focus on the base checklist. 

What if Topps shook things up? Like by removing most if not all of the base-checklist SPs. For clarification, I'm not talking about hidden variations. If anything, by unlocking these 75 or so numbers from short-print status, it opens the possibility of adding meaningful shadow SPs. 

Take the original checklist from 1965 Topps, for example. It's chock full of retiring legends, Hall of Fame rookie cards, and exciting stars. To revitalize the Heritage checklist, take a page from the All-Time Fan Favorites sets and create shadow SPs of players like Yogi Berra, Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Mickey Mantle, Whitey Ford, Hank Aaron, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, and others on their original checklist numbers but using different photos than their original cards. 

This will allow collectors to be able to complete the regular set without breaking the bank, but also add a twist for master set collectors. And this is just the thing a set like Heritage needs—heck, like any set these days needs: a revitalization of the base-set checklist from the inside out.