Junk Wax Battle Postgame Report

Judge Matt Sienkiewicz explains the rules.

Last Thursday evening we kicked off what is sure to be a national phenomenon: Five players. Seven-hundred-and-twenty unopened packs. One ugly set. Yes, the inaugural Junk Wax Battle: 1988 Donruss was a success.

We played at Knight Moves Board Game Cafe in Coolidge Corner, in Brookline, Mass. Starting just after 7pm, we had to call the game due to time constraints  after two and a half hours of frantic wheeling, dealing, and ripping of packs. And no, I did not find a Robbie Alomar Rated Rookie OR a Roger Clemens...

We've proved some of our assumptions correct while others fell by the wayside:

1. Our game was awesome. We knew going in that our rules would provide plenty of frantic moments, from the mass bedlam of five people ripping packs at one table, to heated auctions for needed cards that no one could find in packs. Our prizes were pretty good—a signed Casey at the Bat poster, a 2002 Japanese Topps card of Raul Ibanez, an unopened pack of 1987 Fleer, among others—and the players were competitive. All of it made for a compelling game.

Collating their way to glory.

2. Collation was a nightmare, only not how we expected. Some packs yielded complete fifteen-card runs, like cards checklisted on numbers 240–254 all in one pack, while other packs were more random. And a few other packs, from within the same box, were exact doubles of earlier packs. All told, none of our players completed the 660-card set. The closest full set was still missing around 120 cards. (I thought that at least one person would complete the set, but there were whole swaths of the checklist that nobody found—like cards in the 400s and mid-600s.)

3. Players felt too hurried, and there was too much for them to do. One suggestion was for players to compete in pairs, with one person ripping packs and collating, and the other managing auctions and marking the checklist. This is something we'll tinker with in future games. Another idea was to slow down the game.

Checklisting took a lot of time.

4. The judge was a great idea, and for larger games with more players, two judges could work as well. The Judge's Challenges added life to the game and made it easier for players to amass cards.

5. 1988 Donruss was an inspired choice for our inaugural game. With a 660-card checklist, and terrible collation, it was challenging to put together a set in two and a half hours. In fact, we proved it was practically impossible. Many players said that the checklist was too large for a game like this, but I contend that your amount of time to play dictates the size of the checklist you should use. Two and half hours might be too short for a 660-card set. But at three hours? The beauty of our rules is that the game works regardless of checklist size. We're thinking of using 1988–1990 Topps Big Baseball for our next game, to see how a 264-card checklist might work within the same time constraints.

6. From baseball card shops looking for ways to bring new customers in and kill off their dead junk wax stock, to an exciting group activity at a sports card convention, to a child's birthday party—we think this game has a lot of potential. It may even work as a self-contained game you could buy in a toy store. All of these are possibilities.

E-mail me if you want to participate in our next Junk Wax Battle, and I'll give you the details.

Counting Cards... Er, Stickers

I take collation pretty seriously, mostly because I enjoy knowing what I'm going to get once I know the top card (or sticker, as the case may be). For this box, if Tom Seaver was first out of the pack, your four others would be in this order: Jerry Remy, Dusty Baker, Mike Schmidt, and Vida Blue. Similarly, if you pulled Paul Molitor first, there was nearly a 100% chance that the third sticker would be Manny Trillo, the fourth sticker would be Bob Horner, and the second and fifth stickers would be random.

Even the seemingly random-seeded stickers weren't seeded all that randomly. For instance, Andre Dawson was locked in the 1 hole, John Castino and Fred Lynn both 2's, John Mayberry a 3, Pete Rose Highlight a 4, and Cecil Cooper, Cliff Johnson, Dave Collins, and at least 18 others at 5.

There were "Rogue" stickers as well, or those that didn't appear in a consistent slot (Keith Hernandez, Rollie Fingers League Leaders). And there, hidden amongst the doubles, triples, rogues and locked rows were actual single print stickers – 25 of them to be exact, including all five of the stickers from Pack 1. Amazing.

Someone asked me today what my goal of this project was. I answered that I wanted to be able to hypothetically assemble an uncut sheet of stickers without knowing exactly where each sticker would have fit. And while that would be a neat exercise to actually do, the more I thought about individual box collation, pack cycles, and pack pockets, the more I realized that to make generalizations based a very small sample is at best unwise and at worst just plain stupid.

I remember a few years ago when I started A Pack A Day, I ripped a box of 1989-90 Hoops Series One. I found that not only was the David Robinson draft-day rookie short print not actually short-printed, but I found that if you got it in a pack, you also got Larry Bird (I ended up getting about 4 of each from that one box). But while my experience tells me that the Robinson wasn't actually a short print, why is it always listed as a short print? Using my one-box example to make a generalization doesn't really work.

There are reasons why card companies serial-number cards nowadays. For one thing, it creates a sense of a limited supply. For another thing, it completely destroys the idea of a general collation. Just because you get autographed relic card A doesn't mean you'll also get commons B, C, and D (well, unless the auto relics are considered Rogues, then that opens up whole new possibilities...). Of course, this is not true of regular card products. I'd bet that Topps 2010 has just as poor collation as Topps 1986.

In any event, if you can view a Google doc, you can take a look at my documented collation from my box of 1982 Topps Stickers.

Colored-coded Collation

The Padre Pocket

Pack 77: Greg Minton, Tim Blackwell, Lloyd Moseby, Tommy John, Cliff Johnson

Pack 78: Steve Trout, Richie Zisk, Terry Kennedy, Darrell Porter, Larry Bowa

Pack 79: Dennis Leonard, Tommy John, Gary Matthews, Gary Lucas, Dave Concepcion

Pack 80: NL All-Star Andre Dawson, Tommy John, 1981 World Series Game 6, Jack Clark, Willie Stargell

Pack 81: Larry Herndon, George Foster, NL All-Star Steve Carlton, Cesar Cedeno, Frank White

Pack 82: Hubie Brooks, Broderick Perkins, Ron Oester, Juan Eichelberger, Chris Speier

Pack 83: Enos Cabell, 1981 World Series Game 5, Andre Thornton, Roger Erickson, Bert Blyleven

Pack 84: Ellis Valentine, Johnny Bench, Rollie Fingers, Al Cowens, Darrell Evans

Pack 85: Rick Burleson, Toby Harrah, Dick Tidrow, AL All-Star Jerry Remy, Rick Camp

Pack 86: Neil Allen, Billy Martin Highlight, Jerry Reuss, Ozzie Smith, Fernando Valenzuela


Notes. 39/50 new stickers. That's right, 39 new stickers. Of those, five were Padres. Also of note, besides the three All-Stars, two World Series stickers, and the Billy Martin Highlight, all of the stickers were of individual players. That means that 36 of the stickers were for individual sticker spots on team pages.

So I am surprised? Not really. I mean, I knew that the Padres had to be lurking somewhere. The real question is, will the remaining 14 packs contain the other three Padres that I need to complete the team page? With pocket pack cycles of roughly 10 packs, compounded with the fact that I didn't receive a single Padre in the first 77 packs of the box, could mean that I won't see another Padre in the box.

Moral of the Story Hypothesis: There's evidence that supports taking packs from the top and the bottom of the box.

The Pack Cycle Pocket Hypothesis

Pack 67: Tom Seaver League Leader, Julio Cruz Highlight, Jim Bibby, Ken Landreaux, Claudell Washington

Pack 68: Rollie Fingers League Leader, 1981 World Champions, Willie Aikens, John Wathan, Garry Templeton

Pack 69: Steve Comer, Scott Sanderson, 1981 AL Championship, AL Home Runs League Leaders, Mike Schmidt League Leader

Pack 70: Tom Seaver League Leader, Julio Cruz Highlight, Jim Bibby, Ken Landreaux, Claudell Washington

Pack 71: Willie Aikens, Eddie Murray, Johnnie LeMaster, Rick Rhoden, AL All-Star Rod Carew

Pack 72: Steve Comer, Scott Sanderson, 1981 AL Championship, AL Home Runs League Leaders, Mike Schmidt League Leader

Pack 73: Keith Hernandez, Dave Parker, Rollie Fingers League Leader, Tim Raines League Leader, Jim Rice

Pack 74: Steve Trout, Richie Zisk, AL All-Star Rick Burleson, Darrell Porter, Larry Bowa

Pack 75: Jeff Burroughs, NL All-Star Dave Concepcion, Garry Maddox, Tom Seaver League Leader, 1981 NL Championship, Len Barker League Leader

Pack 76: Johnnie LeMaster, Rickey Henderson League Leader, Steve Comer, Eddie Murray (only four stickers? Rip-off!)


Notes. I got 13/49 new stickers. But many of the new stickers showed up more than once (Steve Comer, Eddie Murray, Claudell Washington, Julio Cruz Highlight, etc.), which is probably the most interesting thing to me about these ten packs. The fact that it took me 67 packs to get a sticker of Claudell Washington, and then only three more packs to get a Claudell double leads me to a new hypothesis: The Pack Cycle Pocket hypothesis.

The Pack Cycle Pocket hypothesis is similar to the Pack Cycle hypothesis I presented a few days ago. The only difference is that the idea of the Pocket takes it one step farther. So if you have a box of 100 packs with a pack cycle of 20, then five packs will have identical contents. But if there's a 5-pack pocket with a cycle of two starting at pack #60, then there will be a great chance that at least two of packs 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, and 65 will be identical; pack #66 will divert back to the larger cycle of 20.

The Pocket hypothesis might help explain why it takes so long to get a certain card and then all of a sudden that card shows up in every other pack. I'll bet that when I look back at the contents of all the packs, there will be stickers that only showed up in a certain sequence of packs, and then not again.

In any event, I still haven't received a single Padre sticker. So either there's a pack cycle pocket coming my way with nothing but Padres, or this box doesn't have any, which I would find hard to believe.

The Curious Collation of Rick Cerone

Remember how I droned on and on about collation speculation in Tuesday's post? About how if all went according to the hypothesized 52-pack cycle, I wouldn't get a triple of any one sticker? Well, that was before I opened Packs 57 through 66. Let's get right to the meat of it.

Pack 57: Lenny Randle, Buddy Bell, AL All-Star Jack Morris, Phil Niekro, Carney Lansford League Leader

Pack 58: Rollie Fingers League Leader, Rich Gossage, Johnnie LeMaster, Rick Rhoden, Len Barker League Leader

Pack 59: Jim Bibby, AL All-Star Rich Gossage, Rick Cerone, Rick Manning, Pete Vuckovich

Pack 60: Eddie Murray League Leader, Fernando Valenzuela League Leader, Keith Hernandez, Graig Nettles, Dave Collins

Pack 61: 1981 AL Championship, Roy Smalley, Joel Youngblood, Mike Easler, Lee Mazzilli

Pack 62: Rick Cerone, Roy Smalley, Eddie Murray League Leader, Steve McCatty League Leader, Bruce Sutter League Leader

Pack 63: Joel Youngblood, Tom Hume, Lenny Randle, Steve McCatty League Leader, Steve Kemp

Pack 64: 1981 AL Championship, Bill Madlock League Leader, Joel Youngblood, Mike Easler, Lee Mazzilli

Pack 65: Jim Bibby, Bill Madlock League Leader, Rick Cerone, Rick Manning, Pete Vuckovich

Pack 66: Rick Cerone, NL All-Star Bruce Sutter, Eddie Murray League Leader, AL All-Star Ken Singleton, Bruce Sutter League Leader


Notes.
I honestly don't where to begin. I may have got 16/50 new stickers, but four Rick Cerones? Three Murray League Leaders? Three Joel Youngbloods? And what about the multiple twos: Roy Smalley, Pete Vuckovich, Mike Easler, Lee Mazzilli, Rick Manning, Jim Bibby?

This box went from a hypothesized pack cycle of 52 to a pack cycle of less than four. How did that happen so quickly? When I wrap up the box or complete the album (whichever comes first), I'll have to spend at least a few minutes devising a chart for this box's collation.

And now things get interesting

It's mostly because I didn't get one single League Leaders sticker in Packs 1 through 46, and Packs 48 through 57 yielded a whole bunch. So: is there really a tangible collation going on with the sequencing of the stickers in these packs? I'm beginning to think so, especially since now, when I get stickers that I need, they come in packs with other stickers that I need (see Pack 48 for example). This leads to another question: Why would Topps care if a whole album could be completed from a single box? Wouldn't it have made more sense for them to make the pack cycle less than 20?

I believe I've brought this up before, but there doesn't seem like there would have been a very good chance that someone in 1982 would buy an entire box of sticker packs, simply because it would cost $20 to buy a whole box and not many kids had that kind of cash to spend on stickers. So then, if we follow this theory, Topps could have made the pack cycle less than 20, and by pack cycle I mean the number of different packs to a box. If there's a pack cycle of 20 in a box of 100 packs, then there would be 20 different packs in the entire box, each pack appearing 5 times.

Of course, bringing in the finite pack cycle idea to any box proves problematic, simply because Topps produced hundreds, if not thousands, of boxes, and they can't all be the same in terms of collation. But let's look at this closely: There are 260 different stickers in the set. The minimum amount of packs to buy would be 52 (each containing 5 new stickers).

If you look at a whole box of 1982 Topps Stickers, the pack cycle is probably right around 52 (this is something we can confirm as we move through the box). If that turns out to be true, then I should end up with a completed album and doubles of almost every sticker – 240 total doubles. And not one triple.

But let's say that, in order to maximize the number of packs a child had to buy to complete the set, you installed a pack cycle of 20. Then the child can't complete a set by purchasing all their packs from one box. It would be impossible. The child would have to purchase packs from at least three boxes. Depending upon the child's proximity to three different purchase points (or three different boxes), completing the album could take him or her all summer, if not longer.

From the company's view, you'd create a collation by assigning stickers to three routes (A, B, C). If Route A has 100 stickers, and Route B has 100 stickers, then Route C would be left with 60 stickers, plus 40 stickers from Route A to complete the pack cycle of 20. So then the second incarnation of Route A would really be Route AB, to fill in to meet 100 stickers, and so on.

Route A = 100 stickers
Route B = 100 stickers
Route C = 60 stickers + 40 stickers from A
Route AB = 60 stickers from A + 40 stickers from B
Route BC = 60 stickers from B + 40 stickers from C
Route CA = 20 stickers from C + 80 stickers from A
Route AB1 = 20 stickers from A + 80 stickers from B
Route BCA = 20 from B + 60 from C + 20 from A
Route AB2 = 80 from A + 20 from B
Route BC1 = 80 from B + 20 from C
Route CA1 = 40 from C + 60 from A
Route AB3 = 40 from A + 60 from B
Route BC2 = 40 from B + 60 from C

In this scenario, there's only 13 possible configurations. With a pack cycle of or around 52, the hypothetical collation is much less complex, if not just completely random (or as random as they appeared on uncut sheets during the printing process).

Of course, I may have it all backwards, and the collation was determined by sticker placement on uncut sheets. The Uncut Sheet theory would explain why some packs contain one or two needed stickers and three or four doubles (single versus double prints).

Pack 47: Eddie Murray Leaders, Fernando Valenzuela Leaders, Keith Hernandez, NL All-Star Manny Trillo, Dave Collins

Pack 48: Lenny Randle, Buddy Bell, Rollie Fingers Leaders, Phil Niekro, Carney Lansford Leaders

Pack 49: Ernie Whitt, Joel Youngblood, Tom Hume, Lenny Randle, Graig Nettles

Pack 50: Gary Carter, Ken Reitz, Tom Paciorek, Bruce Sutter, Dwayne Murphy

Pack 51: Mike Flanagan, Bump Wills, Pedro Guerrero, Ted Simmons, Cecil Cooper

Pack 52: AL All-Star Jack Morris, 1981 World Champions (one half), NL All-Star Dave Concepcion, John Wathan, Garry Templeton

Pack 53: Damaso Garcia, Jorge Orta, Floyd Bannister, NL All-Star Gary Carter, Pete Rose

Pack 54: Willie Aikens, Garry Maddox, Tom Seaver Leaders, 1981 NL Championship, Jeff Burroughs

Pack 55: Keith Hernandez, Dave Parker, Willie Aikens, Tim Raines Leaders, Jim Rice

Pack 56: Willie Wilson, Bob Grich, Steve Garvey, Carney Lansford, Reggie Jackson


Notes. I got 25/50 new stickers, and 25 doubles. Of those 25 doubles, three were of new stickers (Willie Aikens, Keith Hernandez, Lenny Randle). So, why no Willie Aikens for 53 packs, and then two Willie Aikenses in the next two packs? I find the laws of collation utterly fascinating, and yet so complex that my mind has a hard time figuring any of it out.

2008 Topps Series 1: Collation Continued

As I began last night, here are the final 18 packs of my hobby box of 2008 Topps Series 1. But before I get to that, remind me that one of the things I'd like to address at the end of all this is the likelihood of getting a filler card within a pack.

Pack 19
158. Jose Bautista
40. Miguel Tejada
264. Byung-Hyun Kim
142. Chris Duncan
242. Manny Acta
INSERT: Year in Review Bartolo Colon
TOPPS OF THE CLASS FILLER
250. Jonathan Papelbon
210. Mark Teahen
184. Tadahito Iguchi
Only nine cards in the pack.

Pack 20
17. Cristian Guzman
254. David Murphy
61. AL Leaders: Home Runs
155. Carlos Zambrano
272. Anthony Reyes
127. Steve Pearce
INSERT: Mickey Mantle Story #50
INSERT: Trading Card History Teixeira/Francoeur
67. Wes Helms
237. Eric Wedge

Pack 21
134. Matt Stairs
105. Roger Clemens
330. Curtis Granderson
106. Josh Bard
149. Luke Hochevar
195. Todd Helton
INSERT: Gold Foil Zach Duke
TOPPS OF THE CLASS FILLER
176. Troy Patton
230. Roy Halladay
125. Tim Hudson

Pack 22
145. Magglio Ordonez
223. Odalis Perez
181. AL Leaders: Saves
197. Melky Cabrera
48. Zach Duke
INSERT: Year in Review Randy Johnson
INSERT: Gold Foil Melky Cabrera
Checklist 2/3
293. Gavin Floyd
102. Ross Ohlendorf
132. Ramon Vasquez

Pack 23
110. Justin Morneau
249. Chris Sampson
15. AL Leaders: Batting Average
265. Fredi Gonzalez
44. Jonathan Broxton
INSERT: Year in Review Jeff Kent
INSERT: Gold Foil Carlos Zambrano
TOPPS OF THE CLASS FILLER
277. Aubrey Huff
151. Adam Loewen
156. Brandon McCarthy

Pack 24
218. Clint Hurdle
101. NL ROY Ryan Braun
311. Jeremy Guthrie
186. Lastings Milledge
255. Brandon Phillips
INSERT: Own the Game Matt Holliday
INSERT: Gold Foil Steve Pearce
TOPPS OF THE CLASS FILLER
1. Alex Rodriguez
253. Bronson Sardinha
68. Kevin Millar

Pack 25
103. Jonathan Albaladejo
113. Kevin Frandsen
73. Mike Napoli
177. Josh Anderson
192. Jim Edmonds
69. Bobby Cox
INSERT: All-Rookie Team Darryl Strawberry
INSERT: Gold Foil Lastings Milledge
TOPPS OF THE CLASS FILLER
163. Doug Davis
318. Ned Yost

Pack 26
187. Dustin McGowan
120. Andruw Jones
160. Ben Sheets
282. Jon Lester
305. Carlos Delgado
47. Orlando Cabrera
INSERT: All-Rookie Team Brad Wilkerson
INSERT: Trading Card History 1983 Topps Tim Lincecum
TOPPS ROOKIE VOTE FILLER
96. Sam Fuld
221. Ian Snell

Pack 27
261. Josh Barfield
107. Shawn Green
98. Classic Combos: Howard & Utley
87. Maicer Izturis
274. Jermaine Dye
246. Jason Isringhausen
INSERT: All-Rookie Team Ichiro
INSERT: Trading Card History 1895 Mayo Cut Plug Roger Clemens
150. Alfonso Soriano
263. Nook Logan

Pack 28
190. Russell Martin
10. Miguel Cabrera
247. Edgar Gonzalez
216. Ryan Garko
20. Daisuke Matsuzaka
300. Chien-Ming Wang
INSERT: Fred Thompson Candidate
TOPPS ROOKIE VOTE FILLER
38. Preston Wilson
121. Mike Cameron
308. Felipe Lopez

Pack 29
94. Bud Black
4. Rick Ankiel
131. Norris Hopper
266. Ryan Doumit
214. C.J. Wilson
INSERT: World Champions Auto Relic Manny Ramirez (#40/50)
INSERT: Gold Foil Lenny DiNardo
Checklist 1/3
297. Jorge Posada
Pack contains eight cards.

Pack 30
209. Andy Phillips
251. Dan Johnson
12. Jason Bartlett
285. Tony LaRussa
91. Marcus Giles
INSERT: Year in Review Fred Lewis
INSERT: Gold Foil Brian McCann
Checklist 2/3
111. Ubaldo Jimenez
95. John Lackey
290. Edgar Renteria

Pack 31
108. B.J. Ryan
130. Justin Upton
287. Classic Combos: Morneau, Santana, Mauer
199. Adrian Beltre
30. Jimmy Rollins
89. Josh Willingham
INSERT: Mickey Mantle HR History #524
TOPPS ROOKIE VOTE FILLER
245. Dan Haren
329. Lou Piniella
212. Moises Alou

Pack 32
227. Alfredo Amezaga
35. Cole Hamels
58. NL Leaders: RBIs
14. Lenny DiNardo
173. Jamie Moyer
294. Brian McCann
INSERT: Mickey Mantle HR History #525
TOPPS ROOKIE VOTE FILLER
51. Erik Bedard
11. Yorvit Torrealba
36. Brendan Harris

Pack 33
153. Luis Mendoza
140. Brandon Webb
180. Jose Valverde
232. Clay Buchholz
191. Orlando Hudson
154. David Ross
INSERT: World Series Champions Red Sox Gold Bordered (#1450/2008)
13. Kendry Morales
193. J.J. Hardy
171. John Maine

Pack 34
208. David DeJesus
215. Bobby Jenks
63. Jason Michaels
203. Jason Tyner
133. Mike Bacsir
85. Jason Bay
INSERT: Lance Broadway Gold Bordered (#1953/2008)
138. Dan Wheeler
248. Jose Contreras
278. Xavier Nady

Pack 35
243. Akinori Iwamura
152. Bronson Arroyo
24. AL Leaders - RBIs
146. Aaron Hill
79. Omar Vizquel
165. Tim Lincecum
INSERT: Hillary Clinton Candidate
271. Chad Tracy
70. Dan Uggla
157. Tim Redding

Pack 36
100. Ryan Howard
295. Tim Wakefield
54. Victor Martinez
22. Ron Washington
84. Brian Fuentes
279. Damion Easley
INSERT: All-Rookie Team Francisco Liriano
INSERT: Gold Foil Anthony Reyes
Checklist 1/3
37. Jason Marquis
205. Gil Meche


I got 8 checklists, 9 Topps Rookie Vote cards and 10 Topps of the Class. So your chance of getting one of these three cards in a pack, per box, is

Checklist: 22%
Vote card: 25%
Class card: 28%

As far as overall box collation goes, I got 294/330 (89%) of the base set, with only 10 doubles. I didn't really expect to be able to learn very much about the actual order of card distribution, as one box is probably not the best population to work with. If I had opened two boxes, then this experiment would work (with at least a little bit more success).

The idea of collation has always intrigued me. As part of my old job I got to attend press checks at various printers around the New York City area, so I've become more familiar with the print process. Inevitably, on these visits I thought about card printing, cutting, collation and distribution. I've decided that Actual Card Distribution is not random. In fact, I'd hypothesize that it's very ordered. Cards are printed in large sheets, then cut down, so those cards printed next to each other are probably going to be found in packs together. If you get Card A, then you'll get Card B, Card C, and so forth. I know this is true for 1989-90 NBA Hoops Series I: if you got Larry Bird's regular card, there was a very good likelihood you'd also get David Robinson's supposedly short-printed rookie. Two summers ago I ripped a box of that set and pulled four Birds and four Robinsons. It's a little harder to pinpoint what inserts you'll get, but judging from the amount of supposed 'hot packs' for sale on eBay, someone thinks they've found a way. I don't condone feeling up packs for big ticket inserts, buying 'hot packs' on eBay or the dealers who sell them, but I've always found those who think they've found a way to beat the system interesting.

Getting to the Bottom of 2008 Topps Series 1

I'd already told myself that I wouldn't collect this set, that I'd focus on Heritage and let Flagship sail on by. Besides, I told myself, I really wanted to get my shit together and only collect pre-1980 cards. I mean, I've been mildly obsessed with buying cards and stickers from Topps' Venezuelan issues in the Sixties and Seventies. Alas, my addiction reared its ugly head this afternoon.

And I couldn't be happier. My fellow bloggers have expounded on their feelings towards the set's design, the inserts and the other cards they've pulled, so I'll spare you my thoughts (though I did get a Guiliani/Red Sox team card and a World Champs Manny Ramirez auto/relic (#40/50)). I'll also refrain from live-blogging the packs, as I've already live-blogged a pack over on A Pack A Day, as have most of our other great writers.

What intrigues me about this set, besides the stellar All-Rookie Team and Trading Card History inserts, is that I've opened about 38 hobby packs and one jumbo pack and I already have an idea about the overall collation (the sequence of cards throughout distribution). Granted, this would be harder to determine if Topps released all 660 cards in one series.


So here's a list of who I got in each pack, in order (within the pack; packs may not be labeled in actual box-seeding). I'll list 18 packs tonight and the rest tomorrow.

Pack 1
233. NL MVP Jimmy Rollins
128. ALCS Kenny Lofton
231. Casey Blake
229. Dustin Pedroia
303. Jose Lopez
259. Emilio Bonifacio
INSERT: Mickey Mantle HR History #526
204. Rafael Furcal
283. Jorge Sosa
226. Kurt Suzuki

Pack 2
225. Hunter Pence
77. Angel Guzman
220. Roy Oswalt
188. Kei Igawa
175. Delmon Young
INSERT: Own the Game Prince Fielder
INSERT: Jamie Moyer GOLD FOIL
TOPPS OF THE CLASS FILLER
126. Brandon Jones
314. Ian Kinsler
9. Randy Wolf

Pack 3
19. Robinson Tejeda
206. Geoff Jenkins
112. Jacque Jones
291. Eugenio Velez
202. Mike Lamb
109. Joe Nathan
INSERT: Candidate Ron Paul
TOPPS ROOKIE VOTE FILLER
43. Ryan Dempster
31. Ronny Paulino
75. Felix Hernandez

Pack 4
284. Lance Broadway
179. NLDS Chris Young
327. NL Leaders - Strikeouts
53. Hank Blalock
269. James Loney
INSERT: Year in Review Tim Lincecum
INSERT: Tim Lincecum GOLD FOIL
Checklist 2/3
292. Mark Loretta
83. Mark Reynolds
21. Edwin Encarnacion

Pack 5
286. Jeff Clement
16. Kevin Gregg
326. NL Leaders - Batting Average
194. Chad Billingsley
291. Eugenio Velez - My first double. Let the fun begin!
INSERT: Own the Game Jake Peavy
TOPPS OF THE CLASS FILLER
114. Mike Fontenot
43. Ryan Dempster
31. Ronny Paulino

Okay, so now we know that if you get Dempster, you'll get Paulino. You'll also probably get Velez.

Pack 6
19. Robinson Tejeda
206. Geoff Jenkins
112. Jacque Jones
23. Chin-Lung Hu
196. Ross Gload
5. Scott Kazmir
INSERT: Joseph Biden Candidate
TOPPS ROOKIE VOTE FILLER
159. Luke Scott
307. Shawn Hill
281. Carlos Ruiz

Cards listed in bold italic are those that show up in sequence for a second time.

Pack 7
141. Ryan Klesko
257. Classic Combos: Kearns & Young
324. NL Cy Young Winner Jake Peavy
139. Johnny Estrada
50. Jake Peavy
INSERT: All-Rookie Team Roger McDowell
INSERT: Trading Card History Alfonso Soriano Hires 1958
34. Aaron Cook
33. Joe Mauer
280. Willie Randolph

Pack 8
286. Jeff Clement
16. Kevin Gregg
322. AL Leaders Strikeouts
135. Brad Penny
219. Kevin Kouzmanoff
222. Mark Grudzielanek
INSERT: Own The Game Fausto Carmona
INSERT: Josh Bard Gold Foil
TOPPS OF THE CLASS FILLER
168. Phil Hughes
174. Julian Tavarez

Pack 9
288. Classic Combos: Verlander and Rodriguez
25. NLDS Kaz Matsui
7. Mickey Mantle
306. Scott Olsen
262. Brett Myers
299. Cesar Izturis
INSERT: Gold Border Jose Bautista (#1955/2008)
TOPPS ROOKIE VOTE FILLER
39. Yovani Gallardo
325. Jim Leyland
78. Radhames Liz

(I'm pretty sure Gallardo/Leyland/Liz is a sequence I received in another pack outside of this box. I can't readily prove it because I've already mixed those cards up in a box. Oh well. Pressing on.)

Pack 10
26. ALDS Manny Ramirez
3. Jeff Suppan
59. ALDS Grady Sizemore
166. Andy Sonnanstine
124. Bob Geren
INSERT: All-Rookie Team Roy Oswalt
INSERT: Dmitri Young Gold Foil
Checklist 1/3
267. Chris Burke
55. Chris Young
81. Ray Durham

Pack 11
45. Dontrelle Willis
258. Classic Combos: Ramirez & Youkilis
56. Seth Smith
235. Rich Harden
2. Barry Zito
228. Geoff Blum
INSERT: Year in Review Rafael Furcal
INSERT: Andy LaRoche Gold Foil
TOPPS OF THE CLASS FILLER
241. Ervin Santana
316. Scott Hatteberg

Pack 12
28. Kyle Kendrick
117. Boof Bonser
234. WS Red Sox Champs
260. Chad Cordero
49. Orlando Hernandez
INSERT: All-Rookie Team Hanley Ramirez
INSERT: Trading Card History 1962 Topps Justin Upton
TOPPS ROOKIE VOTE FILLER
147. Marlon Anderson
189. Esteban German
200. Manny Ramirez


Pack 13
99. ALCS Ortiz & Ramirez
256. AL MVP Rodriguez
298. NL Leaders: Home Runs
88. Jack Cust
6. Felix Pie
321. J.R. Towles
INSERT: Own The Game Brandon Webb
INSERT: Gold Foil Rafael Soriano
Checklist 3/3
90. Vladimir Guerrero
313. Kameron Loe

Pack 14
207. Jeff Kent
65. Billy Wagner
217. World Series Josh Beckett
198. Shannon Stewart
167. Jason Hirsh
185, Yunel Escobar
INSERT: John Edwards Candidate
18. J.D. Durbin
182, Billy Buckner
80. Alex Rios

Pack 15
289. Justin Ruggiano
302. Horacio Ramirez
129. Kevin Hart
273. Rafael Soriano
162. Andy LaRoche
252. Dmitri Young
INSERT: Gold Bordered Miguel Tejada (#1663/2008)
TOPPS ROOKIE VOTE FILLER
320. Ichiro
136. Robinson Cano
42. Corey Hart

Pack 16
INSERT: Gold Foil Damion Easley
76. Ivan Rodriguez
71. Jarrod Washburn
161. Matt Garza
238. Shane Victorino
82. So Taguchi
296. Paul Konerko
INSERT: Mickey Mantle HR History #523
104. Kevin Youkilis
41. Rich Aurilia
92. Ross Detwiler

Pack 17
62. Rich Thompson
116. Chuck James
143. Willie Harris
315. David Weathers
172. Chris Ray
INSERT: Own The Game Mike Lowell
INSERT: Gold Foil Brandon Phillips
Checklist 3/3
57. Wladimir Balentien
137. Jamey Carroll
317. Cliff Lee

Pack 18
304. Jose Vidro
178. AL ROY Dustin Pedroia
275. AL Cy Young C.C. Sabathia
123. Terry Francona
32. Howie Kendrick
164. Nate Schierholtz
234. World Series Red Sox Champs (with Guiliani)
INSERT: Gold Foil Ron Washington
TOPPS OF THE CLASS FILLER
169. Adam Lind
119. Jeremy Hermida


So even though Topps is not calling the Guiliani card a flat-out insert, that's the way it's being seeded within packs (fifth or sixth card in the pack). Checklists are seeded in the 'filler' spot, between the sixth and seventh cards. I found League Leader cards seeded in the number 3 spot, and really I think we can open this up to include all subset cards, and Seeds 1, 2 and 3.

Through 18 recorded packs, here's a guesstimate on how seeding works:

Card 1: Subset or Base (I think Pack 18's Gold Foil Easley was a mistake in collation)
Card 2: Subset or Base
Card 3: Subset or Base
Card 4: Base
Card 5: Base
Card 6: Insert
Card 7: Insert
Filler
Card 8: Base
Card 9: Base
Card 10: Base