Nothin' But Doubles. How'd That Happen?

(I've been playing around with video, but haven't worked out the kinks yet. Perhaps I'll have it figured out next week.)


Pack 6 Guesses: Fernando Valenzuela, wait a minute... Jim Spencer?, for crissakes Dave Stieb, fuck no Dave Winfield, dammitt Butch Hobson
Pack 6 Actual: All correct!
0/5 NEW!

I can't believe it! It only took me six packs in to get all doubles. Well, this is interesting, because Valenzuela didn't come in the same pack as the other four stickers last go around.



Pack 7 Guesses: Mike Torrez, Gorman Thomas, Doug Corbett, Bill Stein, Butch Wynegar
Pack 4 Actual: All Correct!
0/5 NEW!

Now I'm starting to get worried. Two packs in a row, nothing but doubles. Although the sticker sequencing is interesting. Here's a guess: Some stickers were set as a "control" sequence, while others were randomized. They were probably printed that way in the sheet. Could this mean that there are double prints (DP) or even triple prints, just like their baseball card brethren?



Pack 8 Guesses: Tom Seaver, Jerry Remy, Dusty Baker, Mike Schmidt, Vida "Great Name for a Jam Band" Blue
Pack 8 Actual: All Correct!
5/5 NEW!

Great to get four out of five stars. Also great to finally get some National Leaguers.



Pack 9 Guesses: Oh no... Milt Wilcox, Steve Carlton, Nope, Nope, Chet Lemon on the White Sox
Pack 9 Actual: Wilcox, Carlton, Larry Gura, Mickey Rivers, Lemon
4/5 NEW!

Fascinating fact: Guys like Milt Wilcox, who embraced the Mustache 80s, appear clean-shaven for their sticker.



Pack 10 Guesses: Jack Morris Kick-Ass AL All-Star, Al Oliver, Art Howe, Dave Kingman, Bruce Benedict
Pack 10 Actual: All Correct!
1/5 NEW!

Most accurate way to describe my feelings towards Pack 10? Disappointment. Actually, more like 'Kick-Ass Disappointment.' Really, if you saved up $2.00, bought ten packs of stickers, and then proceeded to reel in not one or two but fifteen doubles, well, I don't care if I did get Jack Morris. I'd be disappointed.



Analysis
Packs 6 through 10 yielded 10 new stickers and 15 doubles. Fourteen from the American League; One AL All-Star in gold foil; Two highlight stickers; Eight from the National League.

What's the probability of getting 15 doubles? Let's see.

There are 260 stickers in the set. I got 25 new stickers in the first five packs. That means there are 235 stickers I don't have, or 90.4% of the set. So if there's hypothetically a 90.4% chance I'll get a new sticker, then the chance of me getting a double is 9.6%, right?

But a 9.6% chance of pulling a double doesn't take into consideration the sequencing of stickers in a pack or sequencing of packs in a box, neither of which we've fully determined.

And it's here, at the precipice of the abstract, that my math fails. Without any evidence backing me up, I'd guess that the real probability of pulling a double hovers somewhere around 15% - 20%, obviously growing exponentially as I open more packs and add new stickers to my album.

More analysis (and maybe a video!) after Packs 11 through 15.

Life is Just One Big Warren Spahn Puzzle

I’ve wracked my brain for just about the worst card you could prepare yourself for when you opened a pack. Let’s face it, if you were like me when you were a kid, all of your money was going towards cards, but if you weren’t—and I can say that I envy you, but I don’t know if I really believe myself when I say that—and you were only buying one or two packs just to remind yourself you were a little kid and this was what little kids (or pimply teenagers without a girlfriend or any semblance of a life, for that matter) were supposed to buy and be interested in (and could afford to buy, besides Garbage Pail Kids and candy (and yes this would be right around the time your best friend got Super Mario 3 and you couldn’t go over to his house every day)), you’d probably be mega-pissed if you got a crap card in your pack. How much did packs cost? 1986 Topps cost 35 cents a pack, Donruss and Fleer more so, 1987 Topps went up to 40 cents a pack (but you got 17 cards a pack) and it just went up from there…until now you can’t buy a pack under a buck or even two (but that’s a different gripe).

So while I’m mostly writing this entry as a starter for an open forum, I have a few obvious suggestions and one strong suggestion for what the worst card you could pull would be.

1. Juan Samuel, Phillies (any year): Here was a guy whom Topps ‘honored’ as an All-Star in 1988 (this year has arguably the most-awesome design for the All-Star card during the 1980s). Okay, so he did have a great 1987, with 100 RBI and over 25 homers for a pretty crap Phillies team. But no one would be happy to pull a Juan Samuel card, let alone his All-Star card. Here were your Topps All-Star second basemen in the Eighties. American League:1982 gave us Willie Randolph, 83 Bobby Grich, 84 Sweet Lou Whitaker, 85 & 86 Damaso Garcia, 87 Tony Bernazard, 88 Randolph again, and 89 Julio ‘Never Gonna Die’ Franco. I wouldn’t be too happy pulling any of those guys, especially the immortals Garcia and Bernazard, though I think Bernazard is active in the Players Union now (actually, I’m not really sure about that, but I like to think he has a desk with a nameplate and a wall of plaques, including one reading ‘The Topps Chewing Gum Company would like to congratulate Tony Bernazard on being named to said Company’s entirely arbitrarily-chosen 1988 All-Star team. Way to go, Tony.’ National League: 1982 Davey Lopes, 83 Manny Trillo, 84 Johnny Ray, 85 Ryne Sandberg, 86 Tommy Herr, 87 Steve Sax, 88 Juan Samuel, and 89 Sandberg once more. Are you kidding me? They should have just given it to Sandberg every year. It would’ve saved thousands of kids from becoming inconsolable after spotting a 2B All-Star, only to realize it was Tommy fuckin’ Herr, or Johnny Ray, Manny Trillo, Steve Sax, take your pick…no one’s going to remember those guys, and All-Star status lasts forever.

2. Bill Doran, Astros, 1986: The idea of the ‘Common’ is one that deserves its own dissertation, but the idea of the faceless common is entirely different, and deserves a short paragraph. Julio Cruz played a forgettable career, recording every year on a forgettable card. Read the back of his card presented here. ‘Julio can dunk basketball from standing start.’ Do you understand the implications of something like this? Julio Cruz is listed at 5’ 9”. And he can dunk from a standing start? Does that mean he has a vertical leap of almost 5 feet? Is that for real? I really want to meet him and make him dunk a basketball. But Bill Doran? There’s nothing great about his career, nothing great about how he spends his leisure time, and worst of all, his photos aren’t interesting. Just a faceless common Topps needed to fill the 792 card quota. Faceless commons present a very strong case as being the worst cards to pull.

3. Doubles. In the same pack. Get a double in a pack sucks, unless it’s of a very good player, but the odds of that would probably be very slim because of print runs, et cetera. Somehow I remember ending up with tons of Lance McCullers, Padres in the 1989 Topps set, (and I just opened two 1989 Donruss packs just now and got a Mark Lemke in each pack…Donruss might as well as just’ve made the puzzle that year Mark Lemke, which leads me to…)

4. The Boring Puzzle Piece, any year, Donruss: unless you got the face or the logo or bat or something, there was nothing fun about the Donruss Puzzle. It was just wasted space.

I leave the rest of this thought to you. What’s the worst card to pull?