Card vs. Card - May 4

The Champ: 1958 Topps - Moose Skowron All-Star
The Challenger: 1982 Topps - Shooty Babbitt

Moose takes the contest, 10 - 4. Card vs. Card returns Monday, where Moose will go against other worthy challengers!

Cardboard Fenway: 1982 Donruss Mark Clear

Cardboard Fenway - #75. 1982 Donruss Mark Clear

Clear came over at one of the annual Red Sox/Angels swap meets: just like Remy, Rudi, Rick Miller, and others. Here, he's pitching with the centerfield bleachers and bullpens as backdrop.

Cardboard Fenway: 1982 Donruss Dwight Evans

Cardboard Fenway - #68. 1982 Donruss Dwight Evans

Here's Dewey pre-mustache, winding up the gun.

Cardboard Fenway: 1982 Fleer Bill Campbell

Cardboard Fenway - #28. 1982 Fleer Bill Campbell

Here's Bill with the Green Monster and light tower behind him. Even in closeup, the photography in this set is horrible.

Cardboard Fenway: 1982 Fleer Joe Rudi

Cardboard Fenway - #18. 1982 Fleer Joe Rudi

Joe Rudi was one of those guys the Red Sox got about 10 years too late. Granted, they tried to get him as early as 1975, but still... Here he is on the field with the red Fenway box seats behind him.

Cardboard Fenway: 1982 Fleer Mike Torrez

Cardboard Fenway - #12. 1982 Fleer Mike Torrez

Here's a fun Fenway fact: If a batter hits a ball all the way to the centerfield wall and it hits to the right of the yellow line, it's a home run. If it hits to the left, it's still in play. That yellow line is like a third foul pole.

Cardboard Fenway: 1982 Fleer Rich Gedman

Cardboard Fenway - #6. 1982 Fleer Rich Gedman

When I was a kid, I wore the exact same style of glasses as Gedman wears here. They kept slipping down, as my face was always sweaty. I can't imagine wearing them as a professional athlete, someone who sweats for a living.

Cardboard Fenway: 1982 Donruss Dennis Eckersley

Cardboard Fenway - #65. 1982 Donruss Dennis Eckersley

This was back when Eck was a starter. Fenway's centerfield bleachers are behind him.

Cardboard Fenway: 1982 Fleer Garry Hancock

Cardboard Fenway - #11. 1982 Fleer Garry Hancock

The more I think about it, I think Fleer must have had a local Boston photographer for the Red Sox cards. Maybe one of the guys from Hall's Nostalgia? Am I mistaken in thinking this?

Counting Cards... Er, Stickers

I take collation pretty seriously, mostly because I enjoy knowing what I'm going to get once I know the top card (or sticker, as the case may be). For this box, if Tom Seaver was first out of the pack, your four others would be in this order: Jerry Remy, Dusty Baker, Mike Schmidt, and Vida Blue. Similarly, if you pulled Paul Molitor first, there was nearly a 100% chance that the third sticker would be Manny Trillo, the fourth sticker would be Bob Horner, and the second and fifth stickers would be random.

Even the seemingly random-seeded stickers weren't seeded all that randomly. For instance, Andre Dawson was locked in the 1 hole, John Castino and Fred Lynn both 2's, John Mayberry a 3, Pete Rose Highlight a 4, and Cecil Cooper, Cliff Johnson, Dave Collins, and at least 18 others at 5.

There were "Rogue" stickers as well, or those that didn't appear in a consistent slot (Keith Hernandez, Rollie Fingers League Leaders). And there, hidden amongst the doubles, triples, rogues and locked rows were actual single print stickers – 25 of them to be exact, including all five of the stickers from Pack 1. Amazing.

Someone asked me today what my goal of this project was. I answered that I wanted to be able to hypothetically assemble an uncut sheet of stickers without knowing exactly where each sticker would have fit. And while that would be a neat exercise to actually do, the more I thought about individual box collation, pack cycles, and pack pockets, the more I realized that to make generalizations based a very small sample is at best unwise and at worst just plain stupid.

I remember a few years ago when I started A Pack A Day, I ripped a box of 1989-90 Hoops Series One. I found that not only was the David Robinson draft-day rookie short print not actually short-printed, but I found that if you got it in a pack, you also got Larry Bird (I ended up getting about 4 of each from that one box). But while my experience tells me that the Robinson wasn't actually a short print, why is it always listed as a short print? Using my one-box example to make a generalization doesn't really work.

There are reasons why card companies serial-number cards nowadays. For one thing, it creates a sense of a limited supply. For another thing, it completely destroys the idea of a general collation. Just because you get autographed relic card A doesn't mean you'll also get commons B, C, and D (well, unless the auto relics are considered Rogues, then that opens up whole new possibilities...). Of course, this is not true of regular card products. I'd bet that Topps 2010 has just as poor collation as Topps 1986.

In any event, if you can view a Google doc, you can take a look at my documented collation from my box of 1982 Topps Stickers.

Colored-coded Collation

Too Much Was Not Enough

Pack 87: Rick Burleson, Toby Harrah, Ron Oester, Juan Eichelberger, Rick Camp

Pack 88: AL All-Star George Brett, 1981 World Series Game 5, Gary Matthews, NL All-Star Gary Carter, Bert Blyleven

Pack 89: Greg Minton, AL All-Star Carlton Fisk, Lloyd Moseby, Ken Singleton, Ken Oberkfell

Pack 90: 1981 World Series Game 4, Gene Richards, Ray Knight, Burt Hooton, Cliff Johnson

Pack 91: Neil Allen, Luis Salazar, Jerry Reuss, Ozzie Smith, Fernando Valenzuela

Pack 92: Len Barker, Billy Martin Highlight, Omar Moreno, 1981 World Series Game 3, Ken Oberkfell

Pack 93: Ivan DeJesus, Bob Boone, Tony Armas, Jack Morris, Jim Palmer

Pack 94: Enos Cabell, Tommy John, 1981 World Series Game 6, Gary Lucas, Dave Concepcion

Pack 95: Dennis Leonard, Bob Boone, Tony Armas, Jack Clark, Willie Stargell

Pack 96: 1981 World Series Game 4, Gene Richards, Ray Knight, Burt Hooton, NL All-Star Dave Parker

Pack 97: Ivan DeJesus, Luis Salazar, Tony Armas, Jack Morris, Jim Palmer

Pack 98: Len Barker, Tim Blackwell, Omar Moreno, 1981 World Series Game 3, AL All-Star Dave Winfield

Pack 99: Hubie Brooks, Broderick Perkins, Andre Thornton, Roger Erickson, Chris Speier

Pack 100: Larry Herndon, George Foster, Dick Tidrow, Cesar Cedeno, Frank White


Notes. Well, that's all she wrote: With only 15/75 new stickers, my sticker album will be forever unfinished. And only 11 stickers short. So that means that within my box of 500 stickers, I only got 249 individual stickers (and 251 others). What I find most interesting about this is the idea of where certain stickers appeared within the box, and then how long it took to get a double, and then sometimes a triple, of that sticker [the Pack Pocket hypothesis, introduced in Sunday's post].

Highlight stickers seemed to appear in the first third of the box, World Series and League Leaders appeared in the last third, and All-Stars appeared throughout. Also, I completed the Red Sox team page before receiving a single Padre, and for a very long time was one Jim Palmer sticker from completing the Orioles team page, only then to receive two Palmers within a few packs of each other towards the end of the box.

Other Notes... This sticker of Omar Moreno has to be the worst sticker in the entire book. Why isn't he facing the camera? A sane person would not have known it was Moreno... I've been staring at the album cover for a while now and I'm convinced that a) the players obscured by the large "25¢" in the lower right corner are shown in team-less uniforms, which is bizarre, and b) Gary Carter's eyes are closed, which begs the question: Why didn't Topps use a photo of one of the World Series-winning LA Dodgers? Like Valenzuela mid-windup or Ron Cey picking his nose?... And speaking of Dodgers, like the other teams, there are only eight players on the team page: Ken Landreaux, Dusty Baker, Ron Cey, Steve Garvey, Pedro Guerrero, Fernando Valenzuela, Burt Hooton, and Jerry Reuss. OK, so most of them are star players, but because the team won the World Series, I would've thought that Topps would have given them a spread. Because how would you feel if you were Davey Lopes, Mike Scioscia or Bill Russell? Or even Tommy Lasorda, for that matter? If anyone deserved a sticker, it was Davey Lopes. The guy was traded after the 1981 season to the A's presumably because he was 36. But then he goes on to put up respectable numbers for six more seasons, including a great 1985 with the Cubs, where he steals 47 bases while getting caught only four times. I'm Davey Lopes! Gimme my damn sticker!

Final Notes. In the next few days I'm going to do a post outlining the entire box, just to see if there's any reason to the madness of opening 100 packs and not finishing the set.

The Padre Pocket

Pack 77: Greg Minton, Tim Blackwell, Lloyd Moseby, Tommy John, Cliff Johnson

Pack 78: Steve Trout, Richie Zisk, Terry Kennedy, Darrell Porter, Larry Bowa

Pack 79: Dennis Leonard, Tommy John, Gary Matthews, Gary Lucas, Dave Concepcion

Pack 80: NL All-Star Andre Dawson, Tommy John, 1981 World Series Game 6, Jack Clark, Willie Stargell

Pack 81: Larry Herndon, George Foster, NL All-Star Steve Carlton, Cesar Cedeno, Frank White

Pack 82: Hubie Brooks, Broderick Perkins, Ron Oester, Juan Eichelberger, Chris Speier

Pack 83: Enos Cabell, 1981 World Series Game 5, Andre Thornton, Roger Erickson, Bert Blyleven

Pack 84: Ellis Valentine, Johnny Bench, Rollie Fingers, Al Cowens, Darrell Evans

Pack 85: Rick Burleson, Toby Harrah, Dick Tidrow, AL All-Star Jerry Remy, Rick Camp

Pack 86: Neil Allen, Billy Martin Highlight, Jerry Reuss, Ozzie Smith, Fernando Valenzuela


Notes. 39/50 new stickers. That's right, 39 new stickers. Of those, five were Padres. Also of note, besides the three All-Stars, two World Series stickers, and the Billy Martin Highlight, all of the stickers were of individual players. That means that 36 of the stickers were for individual sticker spots on team pages.

So I am surprised? Not really. I mean, I knew that the Padres had to be lurking somewhere. The real question is, will the remaining 14 packs contain the other three Padres that I need to complete the team page? With pocket pack cycles of roughly 10 packs, compounded with the fact that I didn't receive a single Padre in the first 77 packs of the box, could mean that I won't see another Padre in the box.

Moral of the Story Hypothesis: There's evidence that supports taking packs from the top and the bottom of the box.

The Pack Cycle Pocket Hypothesis

Pack 67: Tom Seaver League Leader, Julio Cruz Highlight, Jim Bibby, Ken Landreaux, Claudell Washington

Pack 68: Rollie Fingers League Leader, 1981 World Champions, Willie Aikens, John Wathan, Garry Templeton

Pack 69: Steve Comer, Scott Sanderson, 1981 AL Championship, AL Home Runs League Leaders, Mike Schmidt League Leader

Pack 70: Tom Seaver League Leader, Julio Cruz Highlight, Jim Bibby, Ken Landreaux, Claudell Washington

Pack 71: Willie Aikens, Eddie Murray, Johnnie LeMaster, Rick Rhoden, AL All-Star Rod Carew

Pack 72: Steve Comer, Scott Sanderson, 1981 AL Championship, AL Home Runs League Leaders, Mike Schmidt League Leader

Pack 73: Keith Hernandez, Dave Parker, Rollie Fingers League Leader, Tim Raines League Leader, Jim Rice

Pack 74: Steve Trout, Richie Zisk, AL All-Star Rick Burleson, Darrell Porter, Larry Bowa

Pack 75: Jeff Burroughs, NL All-Star Dave Concepcion, Garry Maddox, Tom Seaver League Leader, 1981 NL Championship, Len Barker League Leader

Pack 76: Johnnie LeMaster, Rickey Henderson League Leader, Steve Comer, Eddie Murray (only four stickers? Rip-off!)


Notes. I got 13/49 new stickers. But many of the new stickers showed up more than once (Steve Comer, Eddie Murray, Claudell Washington, Julio Cruz Highlight, etc.), which is probably the most interesting thing to me about these ten packs. The fact that it took me 67 packs to get a sticker of Claudell Washington, and then only three more packs to get a Claudell double leads me to a new hypothesis: The Pack Cycle Pocket hypothesis.

The Pack Cycle Pocket hypothesis is similar to the Pack Cycle hypothesis I presented a few days ago. The only difference is that the idea of the Pocket takes it one step farther. So if you have a box of 100 packs with a pack cycle of 20, then five packs will have identical contents. But if there's a 5-pack pocket with a cycle of two starting at pack #60, then there will be a great chance that at least two of packs 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, and 65 will be identical; pack #66 will divert back to the larger cycle of 20.

The Pocket hypothesis might help explain why it takes so long to get a certain card and then all of a sudden that card shows up in every other pack. I'll bet that when I look back at the contents of all the packs, there will be stickers that only showed up in a certain sequence of packs, and then not again.

In any event, I still haven't received a single Padre sticker. So either there's a pack cycle pocket coming my way with nothing but Padres, or this box doesn't have any, which I would find hard to believe.

The Curious Collation of Rick Cerone

Remember how I droned on and on about collation speculation in Tuesday's post? About how if all went according to the hypothesized 52-pack cycle, I wouldn't get a triple of any one sticker? Well, that was before I opened Packs 57 through 66. Let's get right to the meat of it.

Pack 57: Lenny Randle, Buddy Bell, AL All-Star Jack Morris, Phil Niekro, Carney Lansford League Leader

Pack 58: Rollie Fingers League Leader, Rich Gossage, Johnnie LeMaster, Rick Rhoden, Len Barker League Leader

Pack 59: Jim Bibby, AL All-Star Rich Gossage, Rick Cerone, Rick Manning, Pete Vuckovich

Pack 60: Eddie Murray League Leader, Fernando Valenzuela League Leader, Keith Hernandez, Graig Nettles, Dave Collins

Pack 61: 1981 AL Championship, Roy Smalley, Joel Youngblood, Mike Easler, Lee Mazzilli

Pack 62: Rick Cerone, Roy Smalley, Eddie Murray League Leader, Steve McCatty League Leader, Bruce Sutter League Leader

Pack 63: Joel Youngblood, Tom Hume, Lenny Randle, Steve McCatty League Leader, Steve Kemp

Pack 64: 1981 AL Championship, Bill Madlock League Leader, Joel Youngblood, Mike Easler, Lee Mazzilli

Pack 65: Jim Bibby, Bill Madlock League Leader, Rick Cerone, Rick Manning, Pete Vuckovich

Pack 66: Rick Cerone, NL All-Star Bruce Sutter, Eddie Murray League Leader, AL All-Star Ken Singleton, Bruce Sutter League Leader


Notes.
I honestly don't where to begin. I may have got 16/50 new stickers, but four Rick Cerones? Three Murray League Leaders? Three Joel Youngbloods? And what about the multiple twos: Roy Smalley, Pete Vuckovich, Mike Easler, Lee Mazzilli, Rick Manning, Jim Bibby?

This box went from a hypothesized pack cycle of 52 to a pack cycle of less than four. How did that happen so quickly? When I wrap up the box or complete the album (whichever comes first), I'll have to spend at least a few minutes devising a chart for this box's collation.

And now things get interesting

It's mostly because I didn't get one single League Leaders sticker in Packs 1 through 46, and Packs 48 through 57 yielded a whole bunch. So: is there really a tangible collation going on with the sequencing of the stickers in these packs? I'm beginning to think so, especially since now, when I get stickers that I need, they come in packs with other stickers that I need (see Pack 48 for example). This leads to another question: Why would Topps care if a whole album could be completed from a single box? Wouldn't it have made more sense for them to make the pack cycle less than 20?

I believe I've brought this up before, but there doesn't seem like there would have been a very good chance that someone in 1982 would buy an entire box of sticker packs, simply because it would cost $20 to buy a whole box and not many kids had that kind of cash to spend on stickers. So then, if we follow this theory, Topps could have made the pack cycle less than 20, and by pack cycle I mean the number of different packs to a box. If there's a pack cycle of 20 in a box of 100 packs, then there would be 20 different packs in the entire box, each pack appearing 5 times.

Of course, bringing in the finite pack cycle idea to any box proves problematic, simply because Topps produced hundreds, if not thousands, of boxes, and they can't all be the same in terms of collation. But let's look at this closely: There are 260 different stickers in the set. The minimum amount of packs to buy would be 52 (each containing 5 new stickers).

If you look at a whole box of 1982 Topps Stickers, the pack cycle is probably right around 52 (this is something we can confirm as we move through the box). If that turns out to be true, then I should end up with a completed album and doubles of almost every sticker – 240 total doubles. And not one triple.

But let's say that, in order to maximize the number of packs a child had to buy to complete the set, you installed a pack cycle of 20. Then the child can't complete a set by purchasing all their packs from one box. It would be impossible. The child would have to purchase packs from at least three boxes. Depending upon the child's proximity to three different purchase points (or three different boxes), completing the album could take him or her all summer, if not longer.

From the company's view, you'd create a collation by assigning stickers to three routes (A, B, C). If Route A has 100 stickers, and Route B has 100 stickers, then Route C would be left with 60 stickers, plus 40 stickers from Route A to complete the pack cycle of 20. So then the second incarnation of Route A would really be Route AB, to fill in to meet 100 stickers, and so on.

Route A = 100 stickers
Route B = 100 stickers
Route C = 60 stickers + 40 stickers from A
Route AB = 60 stickers from A + 40 stickers from B
Route BC = 60 stickers from B + 40 stickers from C
Route CA = 20 stickers from C + 80 stickers from A
Route AB1 = 20 stickers from A + 80 stickers from B
Route BCA = 20 from B + 60 from C + 20 from A
Route AB2 = 80 from A + 20 from B
Route BC1 = 80 from B + 20 from C
Route CA1 = 40 from C + 60 from A
Route AB3 = 40 from A + 60 from B
Route BC2 = 40 from B + 60 from C

In this scenario, there's only 13 possible configurations. With a pack cycle of or around 52, the hypothetical collation is much less complex, if not just completely random (or as random as they appeared on uncut sheets during the printing process).

Of course, I may have it all backwards, and the collation was determined by sticker placement on uncut sheets. The Uncut Sheet theory would explain why some packs contain one or two needed stickers and three or four doubles (single versus double prints).

Pack 47: Eddie Murray Leaders, Fernando Valenzuela Leaders, Keith Hernandez, NL All-Star Manny Trillo, Dave Collins

Pack 48: Lenny Randle, Buddy Bell, Rollie Fingers Leaders, Phil Niekro, Carney Lansford Leaders

Pack 49: Ernie Whitt, Joel Youngblood, Tom Hume, Lenny Randle, Graig Nettles

Pack 50: Gary Carter, Ken Reitz, Tom Paciorek, Bruce Sutter, Dwayne Murphy

Pack 51: Mike Flanagan, Bump Wills, Pedro Guerrero, Ted Simmons, Cecil Cooper

Pack 52: AL All-Star Jack Morris, 1981 World Champions (one half), NL All-Star Dave Concepcion, John Wathan, Garry Templeton

Pack 53: Damaso Garcia, Jorge Orta, Floyd Bannister, NL All-Star Gary Carter, Pete Rose

Pack 54: Willie Aikens, Garry Maddox, Tom Seaver Leaders, 1981 NL Championship, Jeff Burroughs

Pack 55: Keith Hernandez, Dave Parker, Willie Aikens, Tim Raines Leaders, Jim Rice

Pack 56: Willie Wilson, Bob Grich, Steve Garvey, Carney Lansford, Reggie Jackson


Notes. I got 25/50 new stickers, and 25 doubles. Of those 25 doubles, three were of new stickers (Willie Aikens, Keith Hernandez, Lenny Randle). So, why no Willie Aikens for 53 packs, and then two Willie Aikenses in the next two packs? I find the laws of collation utterly fascinating, and yet so complex that my mind has a hard time figuring any of it out.

50 Single Stickers Can't Be Wrong

I'm a fan of Elvis Presley. It's the fact that he was a bit of an ass, that he was a drug addict at the end, that he had three TV's, that he had a Jungle Room at Graceland, that he laughed and talked during live recordings, that he was fond of ridiculous jumpsuits and that his album cover art was so darn cool. I'm not talking about the original "Elvis Presley" self-titled album with the rock-a-billy photo and the green and pink text overlay that The Clash ripped off and seems an odd-yet-completely-legitimate choice of inspiration for the design of the 1984 Topps set. That album cover deserves its own, separate dissertation.

I'm talking about the gold lamé army of Elvii raining down on the cover of "50,000,000 Elvis Fans Can't Be Wrong." I'm not sure that's even the name of the album, come to think of it. Doesn't matter. The point I'm trying to make is that if you squint real hard at the American League All-Star stickers that I'm finding at an alarmingly common rate, all decked out in their gold foil, if you try real hard, you can almost see Elvis smiling back.

Key word there is "almost." I guess what I'm trying to say is that I'm as giddy as a schoolgirl after opening 10 packs of stickers and not finding a single double. Let that sink in. Ten packs of five stickers each and no doubles. I completed nearly 20% of the set in one fell swoop. Unheard of. Unbelievable. Especially in this box, this treacherous box of Dusty Bakers and Hosken Powells, Al Olivers and Chet Lemons.

Here they are, in all their glory.

Pack 27: Greg Luzinski, John Castino, Terry Puhl, Bob Knepper, Dwight Evans

Pack 28: Doug Flynn, Leon Durham, George Brett, Milt May, AL All-Star Dave Winfield

Pack 29: Mike Flanagan, Matt Keough, Pedro Guerrero, AL All-Star Jerry Remy, Dwayne Murphy

Pack 30: Damaso Garcia, Jorge Orta, Floyd Bannister, Mike Norris, Reggie Jackson

Pack 31: Gary Carter, Ken Reitz, Tom Paciorek, Ted Simmons, Ron Cey

Pack 32: George Hendrick, NL All-Star George Foster, John Mayberry, Pete Rose Highlight, Bob Forsch

Pack 33: Alan Trammell, Kirk Gibson, Julio Cruz, Mickey Hatcher, Pete Rose

Pack 34: AL All-Star George Brett, Steve Henderson, Warren Cromartie, Steve Rogers, Gary Gray

Pack 35: Len Barker Highlight, Jerry Mumphrey, Don Baylor, Bump Wills, Billy Almon

Pack 36: Steve McCatty, Fred Lynn, AL All-Star Rick Burleson, Danny Darwin, Cecil Cooper


Some notes. I have a gut feeling that it's going to be much harder now to get all new stickers in a pack . . . Interesting to note that Topps used the same Highlights subjects as in the 1982 baseball card set . . . On the Baltimore Orioles page, there are eight players, three of them are pitchers, and none of them are the shortstop . . . It's Billy Almon on the sticker back, but Bill Almon in the album . . . I still have no Leaders, no Pirates, no Padres, and no World Series stickers . . . I almost have completed the Angels, the Twins, and the Astros pages.

Stickey 2: Stickey's Revenge

Pack 21: Paul Molitor, Amos Otis, Manny Trillo, Bob Horner, Rich Dauer
0/5 New!

Pack 22: Al Bumbry, Scott MacGregor, Larry Parrish, Nolan Ryan, Sixto Lezcano
0/5 New!

Pack 23: Ben Oglivie, Willie Randolph, Ron LeFlore, Carl Yastrzemski, Bo Diaz
0/5 New!

What the heck is going on here? Three packs in a row and all doubles?


Pack 24: Alan Ashby, Pat Zachry, Pat Putnam, Doug DeCinces, NL All-Star Pete Rose
1/5 New!

Pack 25: Carlton Fisk, NL All-Star Bruce Sutter, Bruce Bochte, Rich Dotson, Stickey Henderson
1/5 New!


Total New: 2(!)/25
Total Doubles: 23/25
Total Stickeys? And then there were two.

Honestly, I'm shocked and at the same time not surprised. Collation was bad, and at the same time pretty good. Here's what I mean. The possibility of someone buying up the entire box of stickers in 1982 was not very high, so if you bought one or two packs you have a fairly decent shot of getting all different stickers. And if you and your friend bought sticker packs at the same time, pulling them one after another from the box, well, you have a good chance at getting many of the same stickers, (with one or two different ones to trade).

But looking at the whole-box collation... jeez, it's not doing too great right now.

You know what? I'm gonna keep going on this post til I get a pack of all-new stickers. I mean, I've barely cracked the 20% complete mark, and I feel like my doubles pile is already in danger of toppling.

So here we go.

Pack 26: Glenn Hubbard, Craig Reynolds, Ken Forsch, Mike Hargrove, Bill Buckner
5/5 New!

There, see? Didn't have to go so far to get all new stickers. And good thing, too. That Ken Forsch looks like one mean little Gelfling.

Stickey Henderson

Pack 16: Andre Dawson, Rod Carew, Dan Ford, Hosken Powell, Dale Murphy
0/5 New!

Stickey Says: Stickey is truly blessed to not end up in a pack of doubles.


Pack 17: NL All-Star Dave Concepcion, Steve Carlton, Larry Gura, Mickey Rivers, Chet Lemon
1/5 New!

Stickey Says: Stickey thanks Steve Carlton for staying in the National League for just about all of his career.


Pack 18: Tom Seaver, Jerry Remy, Dusty Baker, Mike Schmidt, Vida Blue
0/5 New!

Stickey Says: Dusty Baker, Mickey Rivers, Chet Lemon, Hosken Powell, Dale Murphy, Dan Ford, Andre Dawson... Stickey says Stickey could start over all of these guys.


Pack 19: Al Bumbry, Scott MacGregor, Larry Parrish, Nolan Ryan, Sixto Lezcano
5/5 New!

Stickey Says: Stickey is happy to see Mr. The Nolan Ryan in Pack 19. Finally someone on Stickey's level of all-time greaterness.


Pack 20: Alan Ashby, Pat Zachry, Pat Putnam, Doug DeCinces, and Me, Stickey Henderson
5/5 New!

Stickey Says: Stickey can't believe all these players with bad hairdos. Stickey says Stickey never had a bad haircut in his life. Don't they know they're in front of people?


Total New: 11/25
Total Doubles: 14/25
Total Stickeys? There can be only one.

Hosken Powell On My Mind

Pack 11 Guesses: Willie Randolph, Ron LeFlore, Sweaty Yaz, Dick Davis, Bo Diaz
Pack 11 Actual: Randolph, LeFlore, Yaz, Ben Ogilvie, Bo Diaz
5/5 NEW!

If you were Topps, and had about a hundred photos of Carl Yastrzemski at your disposal for a photo for a sticker, why would you ever pick this one? Did someone at the company have a grudge against Yaz?



Pack 12 Guesses: Carlton Fisk, Amos Otis, Jim Presley, Richard Dotson, Gary Roenicke
Pack 12 Actual: Fisk, Otis, Bruce Bochte, Dotson, Rich Dauer
5/5 NEW!

Great photo of FIsk looking intimidating. Also, great photo of a young Bochte. Hard to recognize without his mustache.



Pack 13 Guesses: Paul Molitor, Rod Carew, Manny Trillo, Bob "Not So Big In Japan" Horner, AL All-Star Rod Carew
Pack 13 Actual: All Correct!
5/5 NEW!

Horner and Trillo are my first two National Leaguers in the last three packs. Also, the Molitor sticker was in the pack backwards and upside down.



Pack 14 Guesses: Hawk Dawson, AL All-Star Goose Gossage, NL All-Star Mike Schmidt, NL All-Star Manny Trillo, Dale Murphy
Pack 14 Actual: All Correct!
5/5 NEW!

Easily the best pack of the day, with 3 big All-Stars, a great shot of Dawson, plus overlooked superstar Dale Murphy.



Pack 15 Guesses: Lou Whitaker, Jose Cruz, Dan Ford, Hosken Powell, Jim Sundberg
Pack 15 Actual: All Correct!
2/5 NEW!

Very similar to Pack 5, where Whitaker, Cruz, and Sundberg are part of the "controlled" sequence, and Ford and Powell are randomized. Also, what information has been denied to my brain to accommodate my ability to recognize Hosken Powell by sight?



Analysis
Packs 11 through 15 yielded 22 new stickers and 3 doubles. Sixteen from the American League; Two AL All-Stars in gold foil & Two NL All-Stars in silver foil; Five from the National League.

Great return from Packs 11 through 15. Finally got a few NL All-Stars, and wound up with just three doubles. I have yet to find any of the League Leaders or the Postseason stickers. It's kind of hard to believe that, for the most part, all of these stickers still stick on their pages, some 28 years after creation. That's a nice shelf life, eh?

This has been fun for me so far, and you have to wonder if a sticker set, complete with album, is something Topps will bring back in the next few years. If they priced it real low, that would be great.

Finally, after 15 packs I have completed roughly 22% of the set (57/260 stickers).

More analysis after Packs 16 through 20.

Nothin' But Doubles. How'd That Happen?

(I've been playing around with video, but haven't worked out the kinks yet. Perhaps I'll have it figured out next week.)


Pack 6 Guesses: Fernando Valenzuela, wait a minute... Jim Spencer?, for crissakes Dave Stieb, fuck no Dave Winfield, dammitt Butch Hobson
Pack 6 Actual: All correct!
0/5 NEW!

I can't believe it! It only took me six packs in to get all doubles. Well, this is interesting, because Valenzuela didn't come in the same pack as the other four stickers last go around.



Pack 7 Guesses: Mike Torrez, Gorman Thomas, Doug Corbett, Bill Stein, Butch Wynegar
Pack 4 Actual: All Correct!
0/5 NEW!

Now I'm starting to get worried. Two packs in a row, nothing but doubles. Although the sticker sequencing is interesting. Here's a guess: Some stickers were set as a "control" sequence, while others were randomized. They were probably printed that way in the sheet. Could this mean that there are double prints (DP) or even triple prints, just like their baseball card brethren?



Pack 8 Guesses: Tom Seaver, Jerry Remy, Dusty Baker, Mike Schmidt, Vida "Great Name for a Jam Band" Blue
Pack 8 Actual: All Correct!
5/5 NEW!

Great to get four out of five stars. Also great to finally get some National Leaguers.



Pack 9 Guesses: Oh no... Milt Wilcox, Steve Carlton, Nope, Nope, Chet Lemon on the White Sox
Pack 9 Actual: Wilcox, Carlton, Larry Gura, Mickey Rivers, Lemon
4/5 NEW!

Fascinating fact: Guys like Milt Wilcox, who embraced the Mustache 80s, appear clean-shaven for their sticker.



Pack 10 Guesses: Jack Morris Kick-Ass AL All-Star, Al Oliver, Art Howe, Dave Kingman, Bruce Benedict
Pack 10 Actual: All Correct!
1/5 NEW!

Most accurate way to describe my feelings towards Pack 10? Disappointment. Actually, more like 'Kick-Ass Disappointment.' Really, if you saved up $2.00, bought ten packs of stickers, and then proceeded to reel in not one or two but fifteen doubles, well, I don't care if I did get Jack Morris. I'd be disappointed.



Analysis
Packs 6 through 10 yielded 10 new stickers and 15 doubles. Fourteen from the American League; One AL All-Star in gold foil; Two highlight stickers; Eight from the National League.

What's the probability of getting 15 doubles? Let's see.

There are 260 stickers in the set. I got 25 new stickers in the first five packs. That means there are 235 stickers I don't have, or 90.4% of the set. So if there's hypothetically a 90.4% chance I'll get a new sticker, then the chance of me getting a double is 9.6%, right?

But a 9.6% chance of pulling a double doesn't take into consideration the sequencing of stickers in a pack or sequencing of packs in a box, neither of which we've fully determined.

And it's here, at the precipice of the abstract, that my math fails. Without any evidence backing me up, I'd guess that the real probability of pulling a double hovers somewhere around 15% - 20%, obviously growing exponentially as I open more packs and add new stickers to my album.

More analysis (and maybe a video!) after Packs 11 through 15.