UPDATED 5/9: Which Cards Made the 2014 Topps "Top 50 Rookies" Buyback Checklist?

2014 Topps is here and the past few weeks have seen multiple eBay sales of buyback rookie redemptions. The only thing is, Topps hasn't publicized which rookie cards have been included in their top 50. It begs the question: Which cards should make the "Top 50 Rookies" buyback checklist?

Here's my shortlist. I updated it to include recent eBay sales prices:

			eBay Sale $	Sold/Unsold?
1	1952	Willie Mays	$2,500.00	Unsold
2	1952	Mickey Mantle
3	1952	Ed Mathews
4	1954	Al Kaline
5	1954	Ernie Banks
6	1954	Henry Aaron
7	1955	Sandy Koufax
8	1955	Roberto Clemente
9	1955	Harmon Killebrew
10	1956	Luis Aparicio
11	1957	Jim Bunning
12	1957	Brooks Robinson
13	1957	Frank Robinson
14	1957	Don Drysdale
15	1958	Orlando Cepeda
16	1958	Roger Maris
17	1959	Bob Gibson
18	1960	Carl Yastrzemski
19	1960	Willie McCovey
20	1961	Billy Williams
21	1961	Juan Marichal
22	1962	Lou Brock
23	1962	Gaylord Perry
24	1963	Willie Stargell
25	1963	Pete Rose
26	1964	Phil Niekro
27	1965	Steve Carlton
28	1965	Joe Morgan
29	1965	Tony Perez
30	1965	Jim Hunter
31	1966	Ferguson Jenkins
32	1966	Jim Palmer
33	1967	Rod Carew
34	1967	Tom Seaver
35	1968	Johnny Bench
36	1968	Nolan Ryan	$899.00	Unsold
37	1969	Reggie Jackson
38	1972	Carlton Fisk
39	1973	Mike Schmidt	$127.50	Sold
40	1974	Dave Winfield
41	1975	Jim Rice	$46.98	Sold
42	1975	Gary Carter
43	1975	Robin Yount
44	1975	George Brett
45	1976	Dennis Eckersley
46	1978	Eddie Murray	$22.49	Sold
47	1979	Ozzie Smith
48	1980	Rickey Henderson
49	1982	Cal Ripken Jr.
50	1983	Tony Gwynn
	1984	Darryl Strawberry	$7.50	Sold
	1984	Dwight Gooden	$36.01	Sold
	1990	Frank Thomas	$51.00	Sold

Update 5/9/14 - Am I missing something here? Why is a Frank Thomas rookie card—usually $4 max—selling for $51?!? Seriously, what is wrong with this picture? The thing about all of these newer cards being included in this buyback program is that it means a more hallowed card from the Fifties (or Sixties or Seventies) is not included. Thomas I understand. Darryl Strawberry I do not.

Update 3/12/14 - Not only is it interesting that Dwight Gooden is considered a top-50 rookie, but that it sold for $36.01! If this is his card from 1984 Topps, we're talking about a $3 card, at best. Why would you pay 12 times that much for the same card? So with Gooden and Strawberry in the top 50, my thinking now is that a couple from the 1960s didn't make the cut.

Update 2/19/14 - It looks like Darryl Strawberry's 1984 Topps rookie made the cut. A redemption card recently sold for $7.50 on eBay (2/17/14). This means that (at least) one of the cards listed above is not included as a buyback.

Bolded entries are cards that have been offered for sale on eBay, confirming they're being offered as part of this buyback insert.

Taking into consideration that these cards are buybacks, that would lead me to believe that they'll all be vintage, and that Topps wouldn't go to great lengths to buy back a 1989 Topps Traded Ken Griffey Jr. card and release it as part of this set, even if you could make a legitimate case that Griffey's rookie is one of the company's top 50.

"Rookie" is a tricky word here, though, as Mays's and Mantle's 1952 cards are not technically rookies, as both players' rookies are in the 1951 Bowman set. That said, my list does not include Bowman cards; if we're including Bowman, then Albert Pujols's 2001 Bowman Chrome autographed rookie would definitely be included above.

Another point is whether Topps includes Pete Rose's rookie, or if it opts to go with someone safer, like Don Mattingly or Bert Blyleven. As a collector, you'd hope that they'd include Rose, as it's the right thing to do. But remember how Topps didn't mention Rose by name as the all-time hits leader on the backs of cards in 2013's flagship set? I distinctly remember the company line being that their action was the "right thing to do" (I'm paraphrasing here). So when it comes to Rose, the "right thing to do" has one meaning inside the walls of One Whitehall and a decidedly different meaning in the rest of the world.

It will be interesting to see whose rookies are included in the official checklist, and what sort of hoopla this set will generate.

Another update: What's also interesting about this buyback is how much these cards are reselling for. I think you can chalk the high Rice price up to a newness factor, and that the buyback redemption was pretty much unexplained at the time of the sale. I can't think of any other reason why someone would pay 5x the going rate for a Jim Rice rookie card. (In fact, the Schmidt went for about double the going rate for an ungraded version of this card.) The Ryan has been offered three times with no purchase: $1,499; $999; and $899, though all as a fixed-price "Buy it Now." The Murray, Rice, and Schmidt cards have been offered as straight auctions.

One final thing: It has not been advertised if the cards received will be raw or graded. I'm pretty sure Topps would announce the cards as graded if it were the case, so if the cards received are raw, what condition will they be in? Did someone just pay nearly $47 for a Jim Rice rookie card in very good condition?