I take collation pretty seriously, mostly because I enjoy knowing what I'm going to get once I know the top card (or sticker, as the case may be). For this box, if Tom Seaver was first out of the pack, your four others would be in this order: Jerry Remy, Dusty Baker, Mike Schmidt, and Vida Blue. Similarly, if you pulled Paul Molitor first, there was nearly a 100% chance that the third sticker would be Manny Trillo, the fourth sticker would be Bob Horner, and the second and fifth stickers would be random.
Even the seemingly random-seeded stickers weren't seeded all that randomly. For instance, Andre Dawson was locked in the 1 hole, John Castino and Fred Lynn both 2's, John Mayberry a 3, Pete Rose Highlight a 4, and Cecil Cooper, Cliff Johnson, Dave Collins, and at least 18 others at 5.
There were "Rogue" stickers as well, or those that didn't appear in a consistent slot (Keith Hernandez, Rollie Fingers League Leaders). And there, hidden amongst the doubles, triples, rogues and locked rows were actual single print stickers – 25 of them to be exact, including all five of the stickers from Pack 1. Amazing.
Someone asked me today what my goal of this project was. I answered that I wanted to be able to hypothetically assemble an uncut sheet of stickers without knowing exactly where each sticker would have fit. And while that would be a neat exercise to actually do, the more I thought about individual box collation, pack cycles, and pack pockets, the more I realized that to make generalizations based a very small sample is at best unwise and at worst just plain stupid.
I remember a few years ago when I started A Pack A Day, I ripped a box of 1989-90 Hoops Series One. I found that not only was the David Robinson draft-day rookie short print not actually short-printed, but I found that if you got it in a pack, you also got Larry Bird (I ended up getting about 4 of each from that one box). But while my experience tells me that the Robinson wasn't actually a short print, why is it always listed as a short print? Using my one-box example to make a generalization doesn't really work.
There are reasons why card companies serial-number cards nowadays. For one thing, it creates a sense of a limited supply. For another thing, it completely destroys the idea of a general collation. Just because you get autographed relic card A doesn't mean you'll also get commons B, C, and D (well, unless the auto relics are considered Rogues, then that opens up whole new possibilities...). Of course, this is not true of regular card products. I'd bet that Topps 2010 has just as poor collation as Topps 1986.
In any event, if you can view a Google doc, you can take a look at my documented collation from my box of 1982 Topps Stickers.
Colored-coded Collation
4
Pack 87: Rick Burleson, Toby Harrah, Ron Oester, Juan Eichelberger, Rick Camp
Pack 88: AL All-Star George Brett, 1981 World Series Game 5, Gary Matthews, NL All-Star Gary Carter, Bert Blyleven
Pack 89: Greg Minton, AL All-Star Carlton Fisk, Lloyd Moseby, Ken Singleton, Ken Oberkfell
Pack 90: 1981 World Series Game 4, Gene Richards, Ray Knight, Burt Hooton, Cliff Johnson
Pack 91: Neil Allen, Luis Salazar, Jerry Reuss, Ozzie Smith, Fernando Valenzuela
Pack 92: Len Barker, Billy Martin Highlight, Omar Moreno, 1981 World Series Game 3, Ken Oberkfell
Pack 93: Ivan DeJesus, Bob Boone, Tony Armas, Jack Morris, Jim Palmer
Pack 94: Enos Cabell, Tommy John, 1981 World Series Game 6, Gary Lucas, Dave Concepcion
Pack 95: Dennis Leonard, Bob Boone, Tony Armas, Jack Clark, Willie Stargell
Pack 96: 1981 World Series Game 4, Gene Richards, Ray Knight, Burt Hooton, NL All-Star Dave Parker
Pack 97: Ivan DeJesus, Luis Salazar, Tony Armas, Jack Morris, Jim Palmer
Pack 98: Len Barker, Tim Blackwell, Omar Moreno, 1981 World Series Game 3, AL All-Star Dave Winfield
Pack 99: Hubie Brooks, Broderick Perkins, Andre Thornton, Roger Erickson, Chris Speier
Pack 100: Larry Herndon, George Foster, Dick Tidrow, Cesar Cedeno, Frank White
Notes. Well, that's all she wrote: With only 15/75 new stickers, my sticker album will be forever unfinished. And only 11 stickers short. So that means that within my box of 500 stickers, I only got 249 individual stickers (and 251 others). What I find most interesting about this is the idea of where certain stickers appeared within the box, and then how long it took to get a double, and then sometimes a triple, of that sticker [the Pack Pocket hypothesis, introduced in Sunday's post].
Highlight stickers seemed to appear in the first third of the box, World Series and League Leaders appeared in the last third, and All-Stars appeared throughout. Also, I completed the Red Sox team page before receiving a single Padre, and for a very long time was one Jim Palmer sticker from completing the Orioles team page, only then to receive two Palmers within a few packs of each other towards the end of the box.
Other Notes... This sticker of Omar Moreno has to be the worst sticker in the entire book. Why isn't he facing the camera? A sane person would not have known it was Moreno... I've been staring at the album cover for a while now and I'm convinced that a) the players obscured by the large "25¢" in the lower right corner are shown in team-less uniforms, which is bizarre, and b) Gary Carter's eyes are closed, which begs the question: Why didn't Topps use a photo of one of the World Series-winning LA Dodgers? Like Valenzuela mid-windup or Ron Cey picking his nose?... And speaking of Dodgers, like the other teams, there are only eight players on the team page: Ken Landreaux, Dusty Baker, Ron Cey, Steve Garvey, Pedro Guerrero, Fernando Valenzuela, Burt Hooton, and Jerry Reuss. OK, so most of them are star players, but because the team won the World Series, I would've thought that Topps would have given them a spread. Because how would you feel if you were Davey Lopes, Mike Scioscia or Bill Russell? Or even Tommy Lasorda, for that matter? If anyone deserved a sticker, it was Davey Lopes. The guy was traded after the 1981 season to the A's presumably because he was 36. But then he goes on to put up respectable numbers for six more seasons, including a great 1985 with the Cubs, where he steals 47 bases while getting caught only four times. I'm Davey Lopes! Gimme my damn sticker!
Final Notes. In the next few days I'm going to do a post outlining the entire box, just to see if there's any reason to the madness of opening 100 packs and not finishing the set.
Pack 77: Greg Minton, Tim Blackwell, Lloyd Moseby, Tommy John, Cliff Johnson
Pack 78: Steve Trout, Richie Zisk, Terry Kennedy, Darrell Porter, Larry Bowa
Pack 79: Dennis Leonard, Tommy John, Gary Matthews, Gary Lucas, Dave Concepcion
Pack 80: NL All-Star Andre Dawson, Tommy John, 1981 World Series Game 6, Jack Clark, Willie Stargell
Pack 81: Larry Herndon, George Foster, NL All-Star Steve Carlton, Cesar Cedeno, Frank White
Pack 82: Hubie Brooks, Broderick Perkins, Ron Oester, Juan Eichelberger, Chris Speier
Pack 83: Enos Cabell, 1981 World Series Game 5, Andre Thornton, Roger Erickson, Bert Blyleven
Pack 84: Ellis Valentine, Johnny Bench, Rollie Fingers, Al Cowens, Darrell Evans
Pack 85: Rick Burleson, Toby Harrah, Dick Tidrow, AL All-Star Jerry Remy, Rick Camp
Pack 86: Neil Allen, Billy Martin Highlight, Jerry Reuss, Ozzie Smith, Fernando Valenzuela
Notes. 39/50 new stickers. That's right, 39 new stickers. Of those, five were Padres. Also of note, besides the three All-Stars, two World Series stickers, and the Billy Martin Highlight, all of the stickers were of individual players. That means that 36 of the stickers were for individual sticker spots on team pages.
So I am surprised? Not really. I mean, I knew that the Padres had to be lurking somewhere. The real question is, will the remaining 14 packs contain the other three Padres that I need to complete the team page? With pocket pack cycles of roughly 10 packs, compounded with the fact that I didn't receive a single Padre in the first 77 packs of the box, could mean that I won't see another Padre in the box.
Moral of the Story Hypothesis: There's evidence that supports taking packs from the top and the bottom of the box.
Pack 78: Steve Trout, Richie Zisk, Terry Kennedy, Darrell Porter, Larry Bowa
Pack 79: Dennis Leonard, Tommy John, Gary Matthews, Gary Lucas, Dave Concepcion
Pack 80: NL All-Star Andre Dawson, Tommy John, 1981 World Series Game 6, Jack Clark, Willie Stargell
Pack 81: Larry Herndon, George Foster, NL All-Star Steve Carlton, Cesar Cedeno, Frank White
Pack 82: Hubie Brooks, Broderick Perkins, Ron Oester, Juan Eichelberger, Chris Speier
Pack 83: Enos Cabell, 1981 World Series Game 5, Andre Thornton, Roger Erickson, Bert Blyleven
Pack 84: Ellis Valentine, Johnny Bench, Rollie Fingers, Al Cowens, Darrell Evans
Pack 85: Rick Burleson, Toby Harrah, Dick Tidrow, AL All-Star Jerry Remy, Rick Camp
Pack 86: Neil Allen, Billy Martin Highlight, Jerry Reuss, Ozzie Smith, Fernando Valenzuela
Notes. 39/50 new stickers. That's right, 39 new stickers. Of those, five were Padres. Also of note, besides the three All-Stars, two World Series stickers, and the Billy Martin Highlight, all of the stickers were of individual players. That means that 36 of the stickers were for individual sticker spots on team pages. So I am surprised? Not really. I mean, I knew that the Padres had to be lurking somewhere. The real question is, will the remaining 14 packs contain the other three Padres that I need to complete the team page? With pocket pack cycles of roughly 10 packs, compounded with the fact that I didn't receive a single Padre in the first 77 packs of the box, could mean that I won't see another Padre in the box.
Moral of the Story Hypothesis: There's evidence that supports taking packs from the top and the bottom of the box.
Pack 67: Tom Seaver League Leader, Julio Cruz Highlight, Jim Bibby, Ken Landreaux, Claudell Washington
Pack 68: Rollie Fingers League Leader, 1981 World Champions, Willie Aikens, John Wathan, Garry Templeton
Pack 69: Steve Comer, Scott Sanderson, 1981 AL Championship, AL Home Runs League Leaders, Mike Schmidt League Leader
Pack 70: Tom Seaver League Leader, Julio Cruz Highlight, Jim Bibby, Ken Landreaux, Claudell Washington
Pack 71: Willie Aikens, Eddie Murray, Johnnie LeMaster, Rick Rhoden, AL All-Star Rod Carew
Pack 72: Steve Comer, Scott Sanderson, 1981 AL Championship, AL Home Runs League Leaders, Mike Schmidt League Leader
Pack 73: Keith Hernandez, Dave Parker, Rollie Fingers League Leader, Tim Raines League Leader, Jim Rice
Pack 74: Steve Trout, Richie Zisk, AL All-Star Rick Burleson, Darrell Porter, Larry Bowa
Pack 75: Jeff Burroughs, NL All-Star Dave Concepcion, Garry Maddox, Tom Seaver League Leader, 1981 NL Championship, Len Barker League Leader
Pack 76: Johnnie LeMaster, Rickey Henderson League Leader, Steve Comer, Eddie Murray (only four stickers? Rip-off!)
Notes. I got 13/49 new stickers. But many of the new stickers showed up more than once (Steve Comer, Eddie Murray, Claudell Washington, Julio Cruz Highlight, etc.), which is probably the most interesting thing to me about these ten packs. The fact that it took me 67 packs to get a sticker of Claudell Washington, and then only three more packs to get a Claudell double leads me to a new hypothesis: The Pack Cycle Pocket hypothesis.
The Pack Cycle Pocket hypothesis is similar to the Pack Cycle hypothesis I presented a few days ago. The only difference is that the idea of the Pocket takes it one step farther. So if you have a box of 100 packs with a pack cycle of 20, then five packs will have identical contents. But if there's a 5-pack pocket with a cycle of two starting at pack #60, then there will be a great chance that at least two of packs 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, and 65 will be identical; pack #66 will divert back to the larger cycle of 20.
The Pocket hypothesis might help explain why it takes so long to get a certain card and then all of a sudden that card shows up in every other pack. I'll bet that when I look back at the contents of all the packs, there will be stickers that only showed up in a certain sequence of packs, and then not again.
In any event, I still haven't received a single Padre sticker. So either there's a pack cycle pocket coming my way with nothing but Padres, or this box doesn't have any, which I would find hard to believe.
Remember how I droned on and on about collation speculation in Tuesday's post? About how if all went according to the hypothesized 52-pack cycle, I wouldn't get a triple of any one sticker? Well, that was before I opened Packs 57 through 66. Let's get right to the meat of it.
Pack 57: Lenny Randle, Buddy Bell, AL All-Star Jack Morris, Phil Niekro, Carney Lansford League Leader
Pack 58: Rollie Fingers League Leader, Rich Gossage, Johnnie LeMaster, Rick Rhoden, Len Barker League Leader
Pack 59: Jim Bibby, AL All-Star Rich Gossage, Rick Cerone, Rick Manning, Pete Vuckovich
Pack 60: Eddie Murray League Leader, Fernando Valenzuela League Leader, Keith Hernandez, Graig Nettles, Dave Collins
Pack 61: 1981 AL Championship, Roy Smalley, Joel Youngblood, Mike Easler, Lee Mazzilli
Pack 62: Rick Cerone, Roy Smalley, Eddie Murray League Leader, Steve McCatty League Leader, Bruce Sutter League Leader
Pack 63: Joel Youngblood, Tom Hume, Lenny Randle, Steve McCatty League Leader, Steve Kemp
Pack 64: 1981 AL Championship, Bill Madlock League Leader, Joel Youngblood, Mike Easler, Lee Mazzilli
Pack 65: Jim Bibby, Bill Madlock League Leader, Rick Cerone, Rick Manning, Pete Vuckovich
Pack 66: Rick Cerone, NL All-Star Bruce Sutter, Eddie Murray League Leader, AL All-Star Ken Singleton, Bruce Sutter League Leader
Notes.
I honestly don't where to begin. I may have got 16/50 new stickers, but four Rick Cerones? Three Murray League Leaders? Three Joel Youngbloods? And what about the multiple twos: Roy Smalley, Pete Vuckovich, Mike Easler, Lee Mazzilli, Rick Manning, Jim Bibby?
This box went from a hypothesized pack cycle of 52 to a pack cycle of less than four. How did that happen so quickly? When I wrap up the box or complete the album (whichever comes first), I'll have to spend at least a few minutes devising a chart for this box's collation.
For nearly 30 years, the name Bob Lemke was synonymous with the unbelievably comprehensive Krause publication The Standard Catalog of Baseball Cards, the bible of card collectors across the country. These days, he's the editor of the Vintage Card section of the Standard Catalog, creates his own custom cards, and blogs about card variations at Bob Lemke's Blog. Bob stepped aside for a few minutes this week to answer a few questions.
BBC Blog: You've been identified with the publication of the annual Standard Catalog of Baseball Cards for many years. How did you get involved with the publication in the first place?
BL: In 1979 I had been employed by Krause Publications for five years, working in the firm’s numismatic division. As I returned to active card collecting in the mid-1970s I recognized that the card hobby was at a state that the coin collecting hobby had been in 20-30 years earlier.
BBC Blog: What are the origins of the Catalog?
BL: A basic hobby publishing tenet that KP’s founder, Chet Krause, had developed since the early 1950s is that to grow and prosper, a collecting hobby needs four basic types of publication: 1) A “trader” paper, published monthly or more frequently, that can connect buyers and sellers (this was in the days before the internet), 2) A glossy national newsstand magazine that can be used to attract the general public, 3) A comprehensive reference/pricing catalog that will allow even the beginning collector to be in the same ballpark as the advanced collector and dealer in terms of basic knowledge of what is available and what it’s worth, and, 4) A periodical price guide to allow for keeping collectors and dealers current in fast-changing markets.
After unsuccessfully trying to buy one or more of the existing hobby trader publications, in the Spring of 1980 we published the premiere issue of Baseball Cards magazine, the first national newsstand magazine for the hobby and instantly the largest circulation publication (125,000) ever in that field.
An integral part of BBC was a price guide section for 1948-date Topps and Bowman cards. That became the basis for the data base that produced the first Standard Catalog of Baseball Cards in 1983. As editor, then publisher of the sports division at KP, I was responsible for developing the line of products that eventually numbered something like seven papers and magazines and more than a dozen books. By the late 1980s we had a full-time editor for the catalog, and I took over than position in the mid-1990s when I semi-retired from my corporate responsibilities.
In May, 2006, I left Krause Publications and the catalog. I returned to the book on a part-time basis in the summer of 2009.
BBC Blog: It's obvious that an enormous amount of work goes into maintaining it each year. Do you work with a set group of people? What is the dynamic like?
BL: The catalog has an in-house staff responsible for maintaining the database and the presentation of the modern (1981+) sections of the book. My bailiwick is maintaining the database and presentation of the vintage major league and minor league sections. I don’t maintain an official cadre of outside contributors, but work with dozens of specialist collectors and dealers year-round who keep me apprised of new discoveries, market (price) movement and popularity trends.
BBC Blog: How do you handle "new" discoveries?
BL: The inclusion of new discoveries is made easier in this day and age by the instant communications offered by the Internet and the ease of providing “evidence” in the form of scans. Even though it is a shadow of itself, eBay for many years offered a huge 24/7 international card show where new things were discovered and up-to-the-minute real-world market values were readily available.
BBC Blog: A great number of vintage Spanish sets are included in the Catalog (Toteleros, Topps Venezuelan, etc.), but very few vintage Japanese sets. Was this done on purpose?
BL: Yes. The principal reason that so many vintage Caribbean and South American card issues have been included in the past is that those professional winter leagues typically included former and future major leaguers, and Negro Leagues players who didn’t appear on career-contemporary “American” cards. Because these players populate the checklists of such sets, they are more popular with collectors in the U.S. than Japanese cards.
BBC Blog: In addition to your own work on the vintage side of the Catalog, you blog about variations and have created a wonderful gallery of your own custom cards. Can you tell me about why you started to blog? And about why you create custom cards?
BL: I started the blog when I signed back on with the catalog so that I would have a venue to communicate with collectors and dealers for the purpose of gathering information to update the book. It also provides me with an outlet for feature writing about baseball and baseball cards.
Bob's newest custom card, a T202 Triple Folder Honus Wagner/Max Carey.
The custom cards have been, for the past six or more years, my principal hobby. I no longer actively collect sports cards other than to provide materials I need to make my “cards that never were.” The availability of user-friendly computer graphics programs allows me to lose myself for hours or even entire weekends in creating baseball and football cards in the styles of the classic cards of the early 20th Century.
BBC Blog: You've been identified with the publication of the annual Standard Catalog of Baseball Cards for many years. How did you get involved with the publication in the first place?
BL: In 1979 I had been employed by Krause Publications for five years, working in the firm’s numismatic division. As I returned to active card collecting in the mid-1970s I recognized that the card hobby was at a state that the coin collecting hobby had been in 20-30 years earlier.
BBC Blog: What are the origins of the Catalog?
BL: A basic hobby publishing tenet that KP’s founder, Chet Krause, had developed since the early 1950s is that to grow and prosper, a collecting hobby needs four basic types of publication: 1) A “trader” paper, published monthly or more frequently, that can connect buyers and sellers (this was in the days before the internet), 2) A glossy national newsstand magazine that can be used to attract the general public, 3) A comprehensive reference/pricing catalog that will allow even the beginning collector to be in the same ballpark as the advanced collector and dealer in terms of basic knowledge of what is available and what it’s worth, and, 4) A periodical price guide to allow for keeping collectors and dealers current in fast-changing markets.
After unsuccessfully trying to buy one or more of the existing hobby trader publications, in the Spring of 1980 we published the premiere issue of Baseball Cards magazine, the first national newsstand magazine for the hobby and instantly the largest circulation publication (125,000) ever in that field.
An integral part of BBC was a price guide section for 1948-date Topps and Bowman cards. That became the basis for the data base that produced the first Standard Catalog of Baseball Cards in 1983. As editor, then publisher of the sports division at KP, I was responsible for developing the line of products that eventually numbered something like seven papers and magazines and more than a dozen books. By the late 1980s we had a full-time editor for the catalog, and I took over than position in the mid-1990s when I semi-retired from my corporate responsibilities.
In May, 2006, I left Krause Publications and the catalog. I returned to the book on a part-time basis in the summer of 2009.
BBC Blog: It's obvious that an enormous amount of work goes into maintaining it each year. Do you work with a set group of people? What is the dynamic like?
BL: The catalog has an in-house staff responsible for maintaining the database and the presentation of the modern (1981+) sections of the book. My bailiwick is maintaining the database and presentation of the vintage major league and minor league sections. I don’t maintain an official cadre of outside contributors, but work with dozens of specialist collectors and dealers year-round who keep me apprised of new discoveries, market (price) movement and popularity trends.
BBC Blog: How do you handle "new" discoveries?
BL: The inclusion of new discoveries is made easier in this day and age by the instant communications offered by the Internet and the ease of providing “evidence” in the form of scans. Even though it is a shadow of itself, eBay for many years offered a huge 24/7 international card show where new things were discovered and up-to-the-minute real-world market values were readily available.
BBC Blog: A great number of vintage Spanish sets are included in the Catalog (Toteleros, Topps Venezuelan, etc.), but very few vintage Japanese sets. Was this done on purpose?
BL: Yes. The principal reason that so many vintage Caribbean and South American card issues have been included in the past is that those professional winter leagues typically included former and future major leaguers, and Negro Leagues players who didn’t appear on career-contemporary “American” cards. Because these players populate the checklists of such sets, they are more popular with collectors in the U.S. than Japanese cards.
BBC Blog: In addition to your own work on the vintage side of the Catalog, you blog about variations and have created a wonderful gallery of your own custom cards. Can you tell me about why you started to blog? And about why you create custom cards?
BL: I started the blog when I signed back on with the catalog so that I would have a venue to communicate with collectors and dealers for the purpose of gathering information to update the book. It also provides me with an outlet for feature writing about baseball and baseball cards.
The custom cards have been, for the past six or more years, my principal hobby. I no longer actively collect sports cards other than to provide materials I need to make my “cards that never were.” The availability of user-friendly computer graphics programs allows me to lose myself for hours or even entire weekends in creating baseball and football cards in the styles of the classic cards of the early 20th Century.
It's mostly because I didn't get one single League Leaders sticker in Packs 1 through 46, and Packs 48 through 57 yielded a whole bunch. So: is there really a tangible collation going on with the sequencing of the stickers in these packs? I'm beginning to think so, especially since now, when I get stickers that I need, they come in packs with other stickers that I need (see Pack 48 for example). This leads to another question: Why would Topps care if a whole album could be completed from a single box? Wouldn't it have made more sense for them to make the pack cycle less than 20?
I believe I've brought this up before, but there doesn't seem like there would have been a very good chance that someone in 1982 would buy an entire box of sticker packs, simply because it would cost $20 to buy a whole box and not many kids had that kind of cash to spend on stickers. So then, if we follow this theory, Topps could have made the pack cycle less than 20, and by pack cycle I mean the number of different packs to a box. If there's a pack cycle of 20 in a box of 100 packs, then there would be 20 different packs in the entire box, each pack appearing 5 times.
Of course, bringing in the finite pack cycle idea to any box proves problematic, simply because Topps produced hundreds, if not thousands, of boxes, and they can't all be the same in terms of collation. But let's look at this closely: There are 260 different stickers in the set. The minimum amount of packs to buy would be 52 (each containing 5 new stickers).
If you look at a whole box of 1982 Topps Stickers, the pack cycle is probably right around 52 (this is something we can confirm as we move through the box). If that turns out to be true, then I should end up with a completed album and doubles of almost every sticker – 240 total doubles. And not one triple.
But let's say that, in order to maximize the number of packs a child had to buy to complete the set, you installed a pack cycle of 20. Then the child can't complete a set by purchasing all their packs from one box. It would be impossible. The child would have to purchase packs from at least three boxes. Depending upon the child's proximity to three different purchase points (or three different boxes), completing the album could take him or her all summer, if not longer.
From the company's view, you'd create a collation by assigning stickers to three routes (A, B, C). If Route A has 100 stickers, and Route B has 100 stickers, then Route C would be left with 60 stickers, plus 40 stickers from Route A to complete the pack cycle of 20. So then the second incarnation of Route A would really be Route AB, to fill in to meet 100 stickers, and so on.
Route A = 100 stickers
Route B = 100 stickers
Route C = 60 stickers + 40 stickers from A
Route AB = 60 stickers from A + 40 stickers from B
Route BC = 60 stickers from B + 40 stickers from C
Route CA = 20 stickers from C + 80 stickers from A
Route AB1 = 20 stickers from A + 80 stickers from B
Route BCA = 20 from B + 60 from C + 20 from A
Route AB2 = 80 from A + 20 from B
Route BC1 = 80 from B + 20 from C
Route CA1 = 40 from C + 60 from A
Route AB3 = 40 from A + 60 from B
Route BC2 = 40 from B + 60 from C
In this scenario, there's only 13 possible configurations. With a pack cycle of or around 52, the hypothetical collation is much less complex, if not just completely random (or as random as they appeared on uncut sheets during the printing process).
Of course, I may have it all backwards, and the collation was determined by sticker placement on uncut sheets. The Uncut Sheet theory would explain why some packs contain one or two needed stickers and three or four doubles (single versus double prints).
Pack 47: Eddie Murray Leaders, Fernando Valenzuela Leaders, Keith Hernandez, NL All-Star Manny Trillo, Dave Collins
Pack 48: Lenny Randle, Buddy Bell, Rollie Fingers Leaders, Phil Niekro, Carney Lansford Leaders
Pack 49: Ernie Whitt, Joel Youngblood, Tom Hume, Lenny Randle, Graig Nettles
Pack 50: Gary Carter, Ken Reitz, Tom Paciorek, Bruce Sutter, Dwayne Murphy
Pack 51: Mike Flanagan, Bump Wills, Pedro Guerrero, Ted Simmons, Cecil Cooper
Pack 52: AL All-Star Jack Morris, 1981 World Champions (one half), NL All-Star Dave Concepcion, John Wathan, Garry Templeton
Pack 53: Damaso Garcia, Jorge Orta, Floyd Bannister, NL All-Star Gary Carter, Pete Rose
Pack 54: Willie Aikens, Garry Maddox, Tom Seaver Leaders, 1981 NL Championship, Jeff Burroughs
Pack 55: Keith Hernandez, Dave Parker, Willie Aikens, Tim Raines Leaders, Jim RicePack 56: Willie Wilson, Bob Grich, Steve Garvey, Carney Lansford, Reggie Jackson
Notes. I got 25/50 new stickers, and 25 doubles. Of those 25 doubles, three were of new stickers (Willie Aikens, Keith Hernandez, Lenny Randle). So, why no Willie Aikens for 53 packs, and then two Willie Aikenses in the next two packs? I find the laws of collation utterly fascinating, and yet so complex that my mind has a hard time figuring any of it out.
There are two things I'd love to see happen in terms of new applications of current technology:
1. Historical map overlays for Google Maps.
2. 3-D webcam projections for older Topps products, specifically Topps Attax: 1982 Topps Stickers
I can't believe that I've been alive for almost 31 years and didn't know that this photo of Mark Clear existed. His hair is breaking the dimensional plane at such an angle that it's almost like you could reach out and feel its sweaty, greasy split ends. Incredible. Right, onto the packs.
Pack 37: NL All-Star Andre Dawson, Kirk Gibson, George Brett, Milt May, Bob Forsch
Pack 38: Doug Flynn, Leon Durham, NL All-Star Steve Carlton, Mike Norris, Gary Gray
Pack 39: Steve McCatty, Steve Henderson, Warren Cromartie, Danny Darwin, Dwight Evans
Pack 40: Alan Trammell, Fred Lynn, Julio Cruz, Mickey Hatcher, Billy Almon
Pack 41: George Hendrick, Jerry Mumphrey, John Mayberry, Steve Rogers, Gary Matthews
Pack 42: Len Barker Highlight, John Castino, Don Baylor, Pete Rose Highlight, 1981 World Series Game 6
Pack 43: Greg Luzinski, AL All-Star Carlton Fisk, Terry Puhl, Bob Knepper, Tony Armas
Pack 44: Willie Wilson, Bob Grich, Steve Garvey, Bruce Sutter, Tony Bernazard
Pack 45: Tim Raines Highlight, Otto Velez, Carl Yastrzemski Highlight, Carney Lansford, Mark Clear
Pack 46: Glenn Hubbard, Craig Reynolds, Ken Forsch, Mike Hargrove, Bill Buckner
Well, I'm back down on earth at 16/50 after going 50/50 on new stickers. That's to be expected, I guess . . . What's more interesting is that I still haven't received a Padre in a pack yet, nor a League Leader . . . I finally got a World Series sticker, and I'm decidedly underwhelmed, especially after the silver and gold foil of the AL and NL All-Star stickers . . . Are Ken and Bob Forsch twins? They are so similar it's hard to believe they're not the same person.
I'm a fan of Elvis Presley. It's the fact that he was a bit of an ass, that he was a drug addict at the end, that he had three TV's, that he had a Jungle Room at Graceland, that he laughed and talked during live recordings, that he was fond of ridiculous jumpsuits and that his album cover art was so darn cool. I'm not talking about the original "Elvis Presley" self-titled album with the rock-a-billy photo and the green and pink text overlay that The Clash ripped off and seems an odd-yet-completely-legitimate choice of inspiration for the design of the 1984 Topps set. That album cover deserves its own, separate dissertation.
I'm talking about the gold lamé army of Elvii raining down on the cover of "50,000,000 Elvis Fans Can't Be Wrong." I'm not sure that's even the name of the album, come to think of it. Doesn't matter. The point I'm trying to make is that if you squint real hard at the American League All-Star stickers that I'm finding at an alarmingly common rate, all decked out in their gold foil, if you try real hard, you can almost see Elvis smiling back.
Key word there is "almost." I guess what I'm trying to say is that I'm as giddy as a schoolgirl after opening 10 packs of stickers and not finding a single double. Let that sink in. Ten packs of five stickers each and no doubles. I completed nearly 20% of the set in one fell swoop. Unheard of. Unbelievable. Especially in this box, this treacherous box of Dusty Bakers and Hosken Powells, Al Olivers and Chet Lemons.
Here they are, in all their glory.
Pack 27: Greg Luzinski, John Castino, Terry Puhl, Bob Knepper, Dwight Evans
Pack 28: Doug Flynn, Leon Durham, George Brett, Milt May, AL All-Star Dave Winfield
Pack 29: Mike Flanagan, Matt Keough, Pedro Guerrero, AL All-Star Jerry Remy, Dwayne Murphy
Pack 30: Damaso Garcia, Jorge Orta, Floyd Bannister, Mike Norris, Reggie Jackson
Pack 31: Gary Carter, Ken Reitz, Tom Paciorek, Ted Simmons, Ron Cey
Pack 32: George Hendrick, NL All-Star George Foster, John Mayberry, Pete Rose Highlight, Bob Forsch
Pack 33: Alan Trammell, Kirk Gibson, Julio Cruz, Mickey Hatcher, Pete Rose
Pack 34: AL All-Star George Brett, Steve Henderson, Warren Cromartie, Steve Rogers, Gary Gray
Pack 35: Len Barker Highlight, Jerry Mumphrey, Don Baylor, Bump Wills, Billy Almon
Pack 36: Steve McCatty, Fred Lynn, AL All-Star Rick Burleson, Danny Darwin, Cecil Cooper
Some notes. I have a gut feeling that it's going to be much harder now to get all new stickers in a pack . . . Interesting to note that Topps used the same Highlights subjects as in the 1982 baseball card set . . . On the Baltimore Orioles page, there are eight players, three of them are pitchers, and none of them are the shortstop . . . It's Billy Almon on the sticker back, but Bill Almon in the album . . . I still have no Leaders, no Pirates, no Padres, and no World Series stickers . . . I almost have completed the Angels, the Twins, and the Astros pages.
If you had ten seconds to grab a few things and dash out of your house before the world around you collapsed, what would you grab? A cell phone? Your checkbook? A clean pair of underpants? Photos of your loved ones? Your medications?
Or would you go directly for your favorite cards?
I'm not writing this to make you feel bad about collecting sports cards and memorabilia when there are people suffering somewhere in the world, nor to make light of the situation. You don't need a sportscard blogger to tell you that the catastrophe in Haiti is a terrible thing and that you should help those affected in any way you can.
I would choose medications, but that's just me. If you said that you would make a bee-line for your cards, don't feel bad: I don't think it's wrong to feel real emotions towards your cards.
But let's be practical here. Choosing your sports memorabilia when what you really need is a toothbrush or your Social Security card may not work for more than a few minutes, unless the sports memorabilia has some sort of value in a collapsed world. And this could very well be the case. It would not surprise me in the least that something like a Babe Ruth–signed baseball could hold barter value in a collapsed world, because of the possibility of the world being rebuilt at some point with the same rules and values system that existed before.
Sports cards themselves are a different, much-less-convincing subject. So instead of spending valuable seconds determining if you really want to save that sports card — be it a 1957 Topps Frank Malzone or a 2008 Playoff Contenders Matt Ryan autographed rookie — keep it in your wallet. Sure, carrying it around with you in your back pocket will beat it to pieces, but that shouldn't matter if you two truly can't be separated.
Or would you go directly for your favorite cards?
I'm not writing this to make you feel bad about collecting sports cards and memorabilia when there are people suffering somewhere in the world, nor to make light of the situation. You don't need a sportscard blogger to tell you that the catastrophe in Haiti is a terrible thing and that you should help those affected in any way you can.
I would choose medications, but that's just me. If you said that you would make a bee-line for your cards, don't feel bad: I don't think it's wrong to feel real emotions towards your cards.
But let's be practical here. Choosing your sports memorabilia when what you really need is a toothbrush or your Social Security card may not work for more than a few minutes, unless the sports memorabilia has some sort of value in a collapsed world. And this could very well be the case. It would not surprise me in the least that something like a Babe Ruth–signed baseball could hold barter value in a collapsed world, because of the possibility of the world being rebuilt at some point with the same rules and values system that existed before.
Sports cards themselves are a different, much-less-convincing subject. So instead of spending valuable seconds determining if you really want to save that sports card — be it a 1957 Topps Frank Malzone or a 2008 Playoff Contenders Matt Ryan autographed rookie — keep it in your wallet. Sure, carrying it around with you in your back pocket will beat it to pieces, but that shouldn't matter if you two truly can't be separated.
Pack 21: Paul Molitor, Amos Otis, Manny Trillo, Bob Horner, Rich Dauer
0/5 New!
Pack 22: Al Bumbry, Scott MacGregor, Larry Parrish, Nolan Ryan, Sixto Lezcano
0/5 New!
Pack 23: Ben Oglivie, Willie Randolph, Ron LeFlore, Carl Yastrzemski, Bo Diaz
0/5 New!
What the heck is going on here? Three packs in a row and all doubles?
Pack 24: Alan Ashby, Pat Zachry, Pat Putnam, Doug DeCinces, NL All-Star Pete Rose
1/5 New!
Pack 25: Carlton Fisk, NL All-Star Bruce Sutter, Bruce Bochte, Rich Dotson, Stickey Henderson
1/5 New!
Total New: 2(!)/25
Total Doubles: 23/25
Total Stickeys? And then there were two.
Honestly, I'm shocked and at the same time not surprised. Collation was bad, and at the same time pretty good. Here's what I mean. The possibility of someone buying up the entire box of stickers in 1982 was not very high, so if you bought one or two packs you have a fairly decent shot of getting all different stickers. And if you and your friend bought sticker packs at the same time, pulling them one after another from the box, well, you have a good chance at getting many of the same stickers, (with one or two different ones to trade).
But looking at the whole-box collation... jeez, it's not doing too great right now.
You know what? I'm gonna keep going on this post til I get a pack of all-new stickers. I mean, I've barely cracked the 20% complete mark, and I feel like my doubles pile is already in danger of toppling.
So here we go.
Pack 26: Glenn Hubbard, Craig Reynolds, Ken Forsch, Mike Hargrove, Bill Buckner
5/5 New!
There, see? Didn't have to go so far to get all new stickers. And good thing, too. That Ken Forsch looks like one mean little Gelfling.
Pack 16: Andre Dawson, Rod Carew, Dan Ford, Hosken Powell, Dale Murphy
0/5 New!
Stickey Says: Stickey is truly blessed to not end up in a pack of doubles.
Pack 17: NL All-Star Dave Concepcion, Steve Carlton, Larry Gura, Mickey Rivers, Chet Lemon
1/5 New!
Stickey Says: Stickey thanks Steve Carlton for staying in the National League for just about all of his career.
Pack 18: Tom Seaver, Jerry Remy, Dusty Baker, Mike Schmidt, Vida Blue
0/5 New!
Stickey Says: Dusty Baker, Mickey Rivers, Chet Lemon, Hosken Powell, Dale Murphy, Dan Ford, Andre Dawson... Stickey says Stickey could start over all of these guys.
Pack 19: Al Bumbry, Scott MacGregor, Larry Parrish, Nolan Ryan, Sixto Lezcano
5/5 New!
Stickey Says: Stickey is happy to see Mr. The Nolan Ryan in Pack 19. Finally someone on Stickey's level of all-time greaterness.
Pack 20: Alan Ashby, Pat Zachry, Pat Putnam, Doug DeCinces, and Me, Stickey Henderson
5/5 New!
Stickey Says: Stickey can't believe all these players with bad hairdos. Stickey says Stickey never had a bad haircut in his life. Don't they know they're in front of people?
Total New: 11/25
Total Doubles: 14/25
Total Stickeys? There can be only one.
Mark Chiarello is an award-winning artist whose work can be found across popular culture, from Batman: Black & White to Hellboy to Heroes of the Negro Leagues. He answered a few questions via email.
BBC Blog: What is your background as an artist?
MC: I trained as an illustrator at Pratt Institute in NY and have been fortunate enough to have made a living as an artist ever since. I somehow get to do what I love for a living, painting pictures of baseball heroes, comic book heroes and movie heroes.
BBC Blog: When did you know you were a fan of the Negro Leagues? Was it a particular experience or epiphany?
MC: I’m a hardcore baseball fan (Yankees), and since my best friend, Jack Morelli lives up near the Baseball Hall of Fame, we go to the ‘Hall’ a few times a year. Years and years ago, Jack and I were walking around, looking at all of the inductee plaques and we both noticed there was a guy named Judy Johnson alongside the likes of Babe Ruth and Willie Mays. Well, our curiosity got the best of us, so we started looking into the Negro Leagues. It’s continued to be a passion of ours for the past 25 years.
BBC Blog: How did you get involved in the "Heroes of the Negro Leagues" trading card set and book?
MC: When Jack and I initially got interested in the Negro Leagues, we realized that there were very few books or information about them. We were pretty astounded that at that point there were no color trading cards dedicated to the League or it’s players, so we took it upon ourselves to create a set, which came out in 1990.
Years later, we were approached by Abrams Publishing and asked if we we’d be interested in collecting all of the cards in book form, which ultimately became “Heroes of the Negro Leagues.” We had a great time expanding the number of players, which required doing forty new paintings for the book.
BBC Blog: Did you get any feedback from the players and/or their families?
MC: We’ve gotten to meet a bunch of the players over the years, including Leon Day, Ray Dandridge, Double Duty Radcliffe and Monte Irvin. And, I have to say, it was pretty darn cool when Monte told me he really liked my painting of him a lot.
BBC Blog: You've become involved with the Josh Gibson Foundation and just recently produced a limited edition print to help them fundraise. Can you tell me more about how you became involved?
MC: I was invited to the unveiling of the Josh Gibson statue at Nationals Stadium last year, by Josh’s great grandson, Sean Gibson. After the ceremony, we got to talking, and we came up with the idea of doing a limited edition print. I’m very honored to be able to contribute to that great foundation, but honestly, I really just wanted to do another painting of Josh, he had such a great face.
BBC Blog: Was this a one-off collaboration, or will there be more projects down the road?
I’m hoping to do some more Negro League player prints, plus I’m looking into the possibility of doing something with the legendary Gale Sayers. Keep your fingers crossed for me!
BBC Blog: Are you a collector?
MC: Yes, I collect any and every card that features a Negro Leaguer. And, although I’m trying to complete my 55’ topps set, my real mania when it comes to collecting is 3D cards, especially the Kelloggs sets that came in cereal boxes when we were kids. The 1970 Kelloggs baseball and football sets are just gorgeous!
Mark Chiarello's limited edition Josh Gibson print can be found at ArtInsights.com (scroll down for ordering info). Remarqued edition prints include a small pencil drawing by the artist (see image above for example). Also, be sure to visit Mark Chiarello's site to view tons of his work.
BBC Blog: What is your background as an artist?
MC: I trained as an illustrator at Pratt Institute in NY and have been fortunate enough to have made a living as an artist ever since. I somehow get to do what I love for a living, painting pictures of baseball heroes, comic book heroes and movie heroes.
BBC Blog: When did you know you were a fan of the Negro Leagues? Was it a particular experience or epiphany?MC: I’m a hardcore baseball fan (Yankees), and since my best friend, Jack Morelli lives up near the Baseball Hall of Fame, we go to the ‘Hall’ a few times a year. Years and years ago, Jack and I were walking around, looking at all of the inductee plaques and we both noticed there was a guy named Judy Johnson alongside the likes of Babe Ruth and Willie Mays. Well, our curiosity got the best of us, so we started looking into the Negro Leagues. It’s continued to be a passion of ours for the past 25 years.
BBC Blog: How did you get involved in the "Heroes of the Negro Leagues" trading card set and book?
MC: When Jack and I initially got interested in the Negro Leagues, we realized that there were very few books or information about them. We were pretty astounded that at that point there were no color trading cards dedicated to the League or it’s players, so we took it upon ourselves to create a set, which came out in 1990.
Years later, we were approached by Abrams Publishing and asked if we we’d be interested in collecting all of the cards in book form, which ultimately became “Heroes of the Negro Leagues.” We had a great time expanding the number of players, which required doing forty new paintings for the book.BBC Blog: Did you get any feedback from the players and/or their families?
MC: We’ve gotten to meet a bunch of the players over the years, including Leon Day, Ray Dandridge, Double Duty Radcliffe and Monte Irvin. And, I have to say, it was pretty darn cool when Monte told me he really liked my painting of him a lot.
BBC Blog: You've become involved with the Josh Gibson Foundation and just recently produced a limited edition print to help them fundraise. Can you tell me more about how you became involved?
MC: I was invited to the unveiling of the Josh Gibson statue at Nationals Stadium last year, by Josh’s great grandson, Sean Gibson. After the ceremony, we got to talking, and we came up with the idea of doing a limited edition print. I’m very honored to be able to contribute to that great foundation, but honestly, I really just wanted to do another painting of Josh, he had such a great face.BBC Blog: Was this a one-off collaboration, or will there be more projects down the road?
I’m hoping to do some more Negro League player prints, plus I’m looking into the possibility of doing something with the legendary Gale Sayers. Keep your fingers crossed for me!
BBC Blog: Are you a collector?
MC: Yes, I collect any and every card that features a Negro Leaguer. And, although I’m trying to complete my 55’ topps set, my real mania when it comes to collecting is 3D cards, especially the Kelloggs sets that came in cereal boxes when we were kids. The 1970 Kelloggs baseball and football sets are just gorgeous!
Mark Chiarello's limited edition Josh Gibson print can be found at ArtInsights.com (scroll down for ordering info). Remarqued edition prints include a small pencil drawing by the artist (see image above for example). Also, be sure to visit Mark Chiarello's site to view tons of his work.
Pack 11 Guesses: Willie Randolph, Ron LeFlore, Sweaty Yaz, Dick Davis, Bo Diaz
Pack 11 Actual: Randolph, LeFlore, Yaz, Ben Ogilvie, Bo Diaz
5/5 NEW!
If you were Topps, and had about a hundred photos of Carl Yastrzemski at your disposal for a photo for a sticker, why would you ever pick this one? Did someone at the company have a grudge against Yaz?
Pack 12 Guesses: Carlton Fisk, Amos Otis, Jim Presley, Richard Dotson, Gary Roenicke
Pack 12 Actual: Fisk, Otis, Bruce Bochte, Dotson, Rich Dauer
5/5 NEW!
Great photo of FIsk looking intimidating. Also, great photo of a young Bochte. Hard to recognize without his mustache.
Pack 13 Guesses: Paul Molitor, Rod Carew, Manny Trillo, Bob "Not So Big In Japan" Horner, AL All-Star Rod Carew
Pack 13 Actual: All Correct!
5/5 NEW!
Horner and Trillo are my first two National Leaguers in the last three packs. Also, the Molitor sticker was in the pack backwards and upside down.
Pack 14 Guesses: Hawk Dawson, AL All-Star Goose Gossage, NL All-Star Mike Schmidt, NL All-Star Manny Trillo, Dale Murphy
Pack 14 Actual: All Correct!
5/5 NEW!
Easily the best pack of the day, with 3 big All-Stars, a great shot of Dawson, plus overlooked superstar Dale Murphy.
Pack 15 Guesses: Lou Whitaker, Jose Cruz, Dan Ford, Hosken Powell, Jim Sundberg
Pack 15 Actual: All Correct!
2/5 NEW!
Very similar to Pack 5, where Whitaker, Cruz, and Sundberg are part of the "controlled" sequence, and Ford and Powell are randomized. Also, what information has been denied to my brain to accommodate my ability to recognize Hosken Powell by sight?
Analysis
Packs 11 through 15 yielded 22 new stickers and 3 doubles. Sixteen from the American League; Two AL All-Stars in gold foil & Two NL All-Stars in silver foil; Five from the National League.
Great return from Packs 11 through 15. Finally got a few NL All-Stars, and wound up with just three doubles. I have yet to find any of the League Leaders or the Postseason stickers. It's kind of hard to believe that, for the most part, all of these stickers still stick on their pages, some 28 years after creation. That's a nice shelf life, eh?
This has been fun for me so far, and you have to wonder if a sticker set, complete with album, is something Topps will bring back in the next few years. If they priced it real low, that would be great.
Finally, after 15 packs I have completed roughly 22% of the set (57/260 stickers).
More analysis after Packs 16 through 20.
(I've been playing around with video, but haven't worked out the kinks yet. Perhaps I'll have it figured out next week.)
Pack 6 Guesses: Fernando Valenzuela, wait a minute... Jim Spencer?, for crissakes Dave Stieb, fuck no Dave Winfield, dammitt Butch Hobson
Pack 6 Actual: All correct!
0/5 NEW!
I can't believe it! It only took me six packs in to get all doubles. Well, this is interesting, because Valenzuela didn't come in the same pack as the other four stickers last go around.
Pack 7 Guesses: Mike Torrez, Gorman Thomas, Doug Corbett, Bill Stein, Butch Wynegar
Pack 4 Actual: All Correct!
0/5 NEW!
Now I'm starting to get worried. Two packs in a row, nothing but doubles. Although the sticker sequencing is interesting. Here's a guess: Some stickers were set as a "control" sequence, while others were randomized. They were probably printed that way in the sheet. Could this mean that there are double prints (DP) or even triple prints, just like their baseball card brethren?
Pack 8 Guesses: Tom Seaver, Jerry Remy, Dusty Baker, Mike Schmidt, Vida "Great Name for a Jam Band" Blue
Pack 8 Actual: All Correct!
5/5 NEW!
Great to get four out of five stars. Also great to finally get some National Leaguers.
Pack 9 Guesses: Oh no... Milt Wilcox, Steve Carlton, Nope, Nope, Chet Lemon on the White Sox
Pack 9 Actual: Wilcox, Carlton, Larry Gura, Mickey Rivers, Lemon
4/5 NEW!
Fascinating fact: Guys like Milt Wilcox, who embraced the Mustache 80s, appear clean-shaven for their sticker.
Pack 10 Guesses: Jack Morris Kick-Ass AL All-Star, Al Oliver, Art Howe, Dave Kingman, Bruce Benedict
Pack 10 Actual: All Correct!
1/5 NEW!
Most accurate way to describe my feelings towards Pack 10? Disappointment. Actually, more like 'Kick-Ass Disappointment.' Really, if you saved up $2.00, bought ten packs of stickers, and then proceeded to reel in not one or two but fifteen doubles, well, I don't care if I did get Jack Morris. I'd be disappointed.
Analysis
Packs 6 through 10 yielded 10 new stickers and 15 doubles. Fourteen from the American League; One AL All-Star in gold foil; Two highlight stickers; Eight from the National League.
What's the probability of getting 15 doubles? Let's see.
There are 260 stickers in the set. I got 25 new stickers in the first five packs. That means there are 235 stickers I don't have, or 90.4% of the set. So if there's hypothetically a 90.4% chance I'll get a new sticker, then the chance of me getting a double is 9.6%, right?
But a 9.6% chance of pulling a double doesn't take into consideration the sequencing of stickers in a pack or sequencing of packs in a box, neither of which we've fully determined.
And it's here, at the precipice of the abstract, that my math fails. Without any evidence backing me up, I'd guess that the real probability of pulling a double hovers somewhere around 15% - 20%, obviously growing exponentially as I open more packs and add new stickers to my album.
More analysis (and maybe a video!) after Packs 11 through 15.
Pack 6 Guesses: Fernando Valenzuela, wait a minute... Jim Spencer?, for crissakes Dave Stieb, fuck no Dave Winfield, dammitt Butch Hobson
Pack 6 Actual: All correct!
0/5 NEW!
I can't believe it! It only took me six packs in to get all doubles. Well, this is interesting, because Valenzuela didn't come in the same pack as the other four stickers last go around.
Pack 7 Guesses: Mike Torrez, Gorman Thomas, Doug Corbett, Bill Stein, Butch Wynegar
Pack 4 Actual: All Correct!
0/5 NEW!
Now I'm starting to get worried. Two packs in a row, nothing but doubles. Although the sticker sequencing is interesting. Here's a guess: Some stickers were set as a "control" sequence, while others were randomized. They were probably printed that way in the sheet. Could this mean that there are double prints (DP) or even triple prints, just like their baseball card brethren?
Pack 8 Guesses: Tom Seaver, Jerry Remy, Dusty Baker, Mike Schmidt, Vida "Great Name for a Jam Band" Blue
Pack 8 Actual: All Correct!
5/5 NEW!
Great to get four out of five stars. Also great to finally get some National Leaguers.
Pack 9 Guesses: Oh no... Milt Wilcox, Steve Carlton, Nope, Nope, Chet Lemon on the White Sox
Pack 9 Actual: Wilcox, Carlton, Larry Gura, Mickey Rivers, Lemon
4/5 NEW!
Fascinating fact: Guys like Milt Wilcox, who embraced the Mustache 80s, appear clean-shaven for their sticker.
Pack 10 Guesses: Jack Morris Kick-Ass AL All-Star, Al Oliver, Art Howe, Dave Kingman, Bruce Benedict
Pack 10 Actual: All Correct!
1/5 NEW!
Most accurate way to describe my feelings towards Pack 10? Disappointment. Actually, more like 'Kick-Ass Disappointment.' Really, if you saved up $2.00, bought ten packs of stickers, and then proceeded to reel in not one or two but fifteen doubles, well, I don't care if I did get Jack Morris. I'd be disappointed.
Analysis
Packs 6 through 10 yielded 10 new stickers and 15 doubles. Fourteen from the American League; One AL All-Star in gold foil; Two highlight stickers; Eight from the National League.
What's the probability of getting 15 doubles? Let's see.
There are 260 stickers in the set. I got 25 new stickers in the first five packs. That means there are 235 stickers I don't have, or 90.4% of the set. So if there's hypothetically a 90.4% chance I'll get a new sticker, then the chance of me getting a double is 9.6%, right?
But a 9.6% chance of pulling a double doesn't take into consideration the sequencing of stickers in a pack or sequencing of packs in a box, neither of which we've fully determined.
And it's here, at the precipice of the abstract, that my math fails. Without any evidence backing me up, I'd guess that the real probability of pulling a double hovers somewhere around 15% - 20%, obviously growing exponentially as I open more packs and add new stickers to my album.
More analysis (and maybe a video!) after Packs 11 through 15.
Sorry about the lack of images for this first post. Images to join us for the second post. Now then, let's see how many of the guys I get, I can recognize without prompt.
Pack 1 Guesses: Mike Krukow, Rufino Alvarez, nope, Tony Perez, Alfredo Griffin
Pack 1 Actual: Krukow, Chris Chambliss, Rob Wilfong, Perez, Griffin
5/5 NEW!
Here's what's funny about this: I don't think "Rufino Alvarez" is a real person. I think I just made that name up.
Pack 2 Guesses: Fernando Valenzuela, Al Oliver, Larry Dierker, Dave Kingman, Bruce Benedryl
Pack 2 Actual: Valenzuela, Oliver, Art Howe, Kingman, Bruce Benedict
5/5 NEW!
These sticker packs just fall apart like paper. I hope the stickers will stay in the album for more than one day.
Pack 3 Guesses: Nope, Nope, Dave Stieb, Fuck Yeah Dave Winfield, Butch Hobson
Pack 3 Actual: Milt Wilcox, Jim Spencer, Stieb, Winfield, Hobson
5/5 NEW!
I forgot that 1982 would be the first year with Carlton Fisk as a White Sock and that mammoth Angels/Red Sox trade.
Pack 4 Guesses: Mike Torrez, Gorman Thomas, AL All-Star Dwight Evans, AL All-Star Ken Singleton, Butch Wynegar
Pack 4 Actual: All Correct!
5/5 NEW!
The most innovative thing about stickers from the Topps 1980s is the inclusion of gold and silver foil. I think it was really just metallic ink, but man does it look cool.
Pack 5 Guesses: Lou Whitaker, Jose Cruz the First, Nope, Toby Harrah, Jim Sundberg
Pack 5 Actual: Whitaker, Cruz, Doug Corbett, Bill Stein, Sundberg
5/5 NEW!
Who are some of these guys? Were they actually in the major leagues?
Analysis
Packs 1 through 5 yielded 25 new stickers. Fifteen from the American League; Two AL All-Stars in gold foil; Two highlight stickers; Six from the National League. What's most interesting is that many of the stickers followed each other in the checklist. Art Howe is followed by Jose Cruz, Mike Torrez is followed by Tony Perez, Bill Stein Highlight is followed by Fernando Valenzuela Highlight. Why is this? I opened the first five packs from the box. Was the collation really this bad? Or is it more logical that Topps thought kids would, on average, buy five packs (a dollar's worth), at a time? I don't have answers to any of these questions.
More analysis after Packs 6 through 10.
Pack 1 Guesses: Mike Krukow, Rufino Alvarez, nope, Tony Perez, Alfredo Griffin
Pack 1 Actual: Krukow, Chris Chambliss, Rob Wilfong, Perez, Griffin
5/5 NEW!
Here's what's funny about this: I don't think "Rufino Alvarez" is a real person. I think I just made that name up.
Pack 2 Guesses: Fernando Valenzuela, Al Oliver, Larry Dierker, Dave Kingman, Bruce Benedryl
Pack 2 Actual: Valenzuela, Oliver, Art Howe, Kingman, Bruce Benedict
5/5 NEW!
These sticker packs just fall apart like paper. I hope the stickers will stay in the album for more than one day.
Pack 3 Guesses: Nope, Nope, Dave Stieb, Fuck Yeah Dave Winfield, Butch Hobson
Pack 3 Actual: Milt Wilcox, Jim Spencer, Stieb, Winfield, Hobson
5/5 NEW!
I forgot that 1982 would be the first year with Carlton Fisk as a White Sock and that mammoth Angels/Red Sox trade.
Pack 4 Guesses: Mike Torrez, Gorman Thomas, AL All-Star Dwight Evans, AL All-Star Ken Singleton, Butch Wynegar
Pack 4 Actual: All Correct!
5/5 NEW!
The most innovative thing about stickers from the Topps 1980s is the inclusion of gold and silver foil. I think it was really just metallic ink, but man does it look cool.
Pack 5 Guesses: Lou Whitaker, Jose Cruz the First, Nope, Toby Harrah, Jim Sundberg
Pack 5 Actual: Whitaker, Cruz, Doug Corbett, Bill Stein, Sundberg
5/5 NEW!
Who are some of these guys? Were they actually in the major leagues?
Analysis
Packs 1 through 5 yielded 25 new stickers. Fifteen from the American League; Two AL All-Stars in gold foil; Two highlight stickers; Six from the National League. What's most interesting is that many of the stickers followed each other in the checklist. Art Howe is followed by Jose Cruz, Mike Torrez is followed by Tony Perez, Bill Stein Highlight is followed by Fernando Valenzuela Highlight. Why is this? I opened the first five packs from the box. Was the collation really this bad? Or is it more logical that Topps thought kids would, on average, buy five packs (a dollar's worth), at a time? I don't have answers to any of these questions.
More analysis after Packs 6 through 10.
I couldn't read. I had no concept of time. I had no clue what baseball was. I didn't know the World Series existed before the Red Sox made it there in 1986.But stickers? Yeah, I kinda knew what stickers were. Stickers and I have enjoyed a love-love relationship my whole life. Dinosaur stickers begot robot stickers eventually begot Obey Giant stickers. So when I reached a certain collecting-and-knowing-what-baseball-was-age, stickers and I rekindled our love affair once more in the form of the Panini and Topps sticker books. I never completed my sticker albums, but I was always gung-ho.
I just want to get all of this off my chest before I start down this long, sometimes dusty, but always sticky road.
Initial Thoughts
1982 Topps Stickers. Man, that kid on the box is kind of creepy, isn't he? And yet, I'd be as stoked as he obviously is if I was eight years old and embarking on a magnificent sticker-filled adventure. If we all agree for the moment that the kid on the box was around eight years old in 1982... he would be 36 today.
Gary Carter is on the front of the album, and each page has a slightly obscured shadow portrait of a member of each team. What's creepy about this is that the eyes have been removed from each person, leaving somewhat anonymous baseball-playing zombies haunting the backgrounds of each page.
Twenty cents for five stickers to a pack, which means the minimum a kid was spending to fill his or her album was (260 stickers/5= 52 unique packs) 52 x 20¢ = $10.40 (+ 25¢ for the album)... So a total of $10.65 to complete the album without ever getting a double. Not exactly chump change to a kid in 1982.
So I've armed myself with a complete, unopened box of stickers (100 packs), which was easier than expected to track down, and an unused sticker album.
Let's get this sticker party started.
When players come into the league, they either do or do not live up to their hype. Doesn't matter who—Alex Rodriguez, Fred Lynn, Bob Hamelin, or Stephen Strasburg—it seems like everybody is subject to hype. (A great movie about this, in a roundabout way, is Sugar.)
But what about the guys who fly under the radar? Guys who just sort of show up? Where do they stand? In a world dominated by information, it's hard to imagine a player making it to the majors today without at least one news source commenting on his talent (or lack thereof).
I'm not old enough to remember John Doherty. His statistics suggest he didn't really belong in the major leagues, or the high minor leagues, for that matter, but he hung around the California Angels for parts of two seasons (1974, 1975), and triple-AAA for six others.
But you'd think someone must remember him, right? You'd think fans of the game or little kids collecting cards in the mid-1970s would know about John Doherty of the Angels. And maybe they do, but I'd venture a guess that the circle is relatively small—say, limited to the Los Angeles, California–area. The reason? This card of Doherty (1975 Topps) was his only Topps card. Ever.
And it's not a memorable card. The only reason I pulled it from a stack last night was because I didn't recognize the face or the name, and because his face was so close to the camera. Right away that's a bad sign, possibly meaning no photo of him in game-play action, or the batting cage, for that matter, was taken (though he's wearing a left-handed batting helmet). Even the signature (from his Topps contract) emblazoned across his neck is hurriedly scrawled, as if Doherty, too, was surprised by the dumb luck of his being called up.
The game's history is filled with "cup of coffee" guys. For some players, that means one inning of mop-up duty, or a few games as a fourth outfielder. For others, it's parts of a few seasons, or an exceptional first season followed by a disappointing second. And then nothing.
We will remember Stephen Strasburg, no matter how he performs in the majors, just like we remember Clint Hurdle and Brien Taylor.
But John Doherty? All I can say is, Who?
Sometime in December I decided to find out how long it would take to put together a set by simply buying wax packs. Of course, the holidays were fast approaching, so this became a project for after the madness passed. And now here we are.
A few days ago, I put out a message on Facebook/Twitter asking for help: Which set should I put together? The choices were 1981 Fleer, 1990 Topps, 1991 Topps, 1992 Upper Deck, 1994 Fleer, and a random 1980s Topps sticker set. I got a lot of response, mostly choosing a sticker set (5 votes), 1981 Fleer (2 votes), or 1990 Topps (2 votes).
After much deliberation, here's the set I'll be aiming to complete: 1982 Topps Stickers. I chose 1982 because of the availability of unopened sticker packs and unused sticker albums. After I complete the sticker album, I will attempt to complete 1991 Topps, a set I never liked and never bought when it came out. After 1991 Topps, who knows.
Here are the rules: No trading. No buying of opened lots on eBay. I will only buy packs. I also plan on tracking sticker/card sequencing in packs. I will then fill in each page of the sticker album as best I can. I still haven't figured out what to do with the sticker doubles, but I think some sort of public art around Boston will be on tap.
To me, one of the most enjoyable parts of a baseball card is not so much the player, but what's in the background of the photo. It's especially fun when an old advertisement takes a prominent spot, like this one of Bill Fahey from 1973 Topps. (In fact, 1973 Topps may contain the greatest photo backgrounds of any set, ever, but that's a topic for another post.)
In plain sight to the left of Fahey there's an ad for the fine dining and cocktail options available at Harris' Imperial House in Boca Raton, Florida. The card also features an ad for Fowlkes Chevrolet, which, judging from information available on the Web, may or may not be related in some way with Mayes Chevrolet, which had been on the former Storyland Park property in Broward County, Florida (Pompano Beach: A History).
Next time you're going through your cards, find a good one with a prominent ad in the background of the player photo and post a scan on The Baseball Card Blog's Facebook page. I bet we'll get a great gallery going.
Is it the scripty names? The low budget headshots? The blue outlines for American Leaguers and red for National?
What is it about this set that makes this grown man swoon?
I'll tell you what. It's cheap. Super cheap, in fact. I may be blowing my cover here, but arm yourself with the right reference guides and you can buy the rare ones for practically nothin' from the rubes on eBay. It's a good-looking set, too. Clean lines, small Post logo, real team insignia and uniforms––none of that crap from the Eighties and Nineties, after Major League Baseball added a (TM) to everything and made it so the third-parties didn't want to pay the licensing fees. And this one's an old set, and a short one, too. Just 200 cards. And did I mention it's cheap?
If you're looking for a fun, ground-floor set to get in on, make it a Post Cereal set from the 1960s. I chose 1962. It's got unexpected rarities (like Jerry Lynch), big names that are relatively easy to find, two versions of the Mantle and Maris cards, a host of errors, and the wonderful phenomenon of the hand-cut card.
Ah yes, the joys of cutting your own cards! I remember a certain Will Clark card I cut off the back of a Drake's Cakes when I was 9 years old. It had more angles and jagged edges than a rectangle is supposed to have...
Unless you had steady surgeon's hands or had a parent do the work, you got a ragged piece of cardboard. But that's the fun of it. Besides, who wanted to wait for a parent? I needed that Will Clark card in my grubby stack of cards now!
And no matter where you find these early-Sixties Post cards, be it in the dime bin at a show or a ten-dollar lot on eBay, they are always a bit ragged. Sure, being born of cereal-box-grade cardboard didn't help (feels a bit flimsier than standard Topps baseball cards of the day), but it's the knowledge that kids in the Sixties were every bit as impatient to get at their cards as I was, twenty-five years later, that puts this set on a higher plane.
So goodnight, you backs of cereal boxes, you hand-cut kings of nostalgia.
I started The Baseball Card Blog, funny enough, to blog about baseball cards. Collecting baseball cards, trading baseball cards, buying baseball cards. Dealing—tongue firmly in cheek—with the addiction of baseball cards. Openly questioning the sanity of my own fawning over sports stars and their small cardboard representations.
But The Baseball Card Blog became other things as well, though I tried very hard to keep it on topic. This was not to be about my life, unless my life somehow had something to do with baseball cards. This was not to be a forum for ragging on private individuals; I made a point of keeping angry thoughts private.
I poured a lot of time into this blog. I spent a lot of energy writing the stuff I wanted to write: dissertations I felt were needed on sparsely represented topics (hello, 1987 Topps); artistic interpretations to epic odes of futility (Casey at the Bat); giving away cards I liked (The Great Goudey Trade-away); highlighting funny things about utilitymen, bit players, managers, and bona fide stars. I enjoyed this kind of thing.
And then I didn't. I explored selling the blog. I explored bringing in new writers. Ultimately, none of these were ideas I saw to completion. The Baseball Card Blog was retired. I added a link to the Wikipedia page for Casey at the Bat and nobody took it down. I stopped writing.
But I didn't stop collecting. Or reading others' blogs. I kept up with Cardboard Junkie (still my favorite). I started collecting the T118 (World's Greatest Explorers) and T218 (Mecca/Hassan Athletic Champions) sets. I am just about 50% complete on the 1962 Post Cereal set. I started collecting 1956 Topps, 1967 Who Am I?, and lots of miscuts, printing errors and blank fronts and backs. I even got in touch with The Baseball Reliquary in Monrovia, California, about donating a hard copy of the baseball-card Casey at the Bat, but still haven't got my act together to send it along to them.
And all of these things slowly made me want to start writing about it all again. Not religiously blogging three or four times a day so that it gets in the way of me living the rest of my life. But simply writing about baseball cards when I have the time.
I had to take a year off. Now it's time to dust off the cobwebs, tinker with the setup, and see how long it will take me to put together a set by simply buying packs.
BH
January 1, 2010
But The Baseball Card Blog became other things as well, though I tried very hard to keep it on topic. This was not to be about my life, unless my life somehow had something to do with baseball cards. This was not to be a forum for ragging on private individuals; I made a point of keeping angry thoughts private.
I poured a lot of time into this blog. I spent a lot of energy writing the stuff I wanted to write: dissertations I felt were needed on sparsely represented topics (hello, 1987 Topps); artistic interpretations to epic odes of futility (Casey at the Bat); giving away cards I liked (The Great Goudey Trade-away); highlighting funny things about utilitymen, bit players, managers, and bona fide stars. I enjoyed this kind of thing. And then I didn't. I explored selling the blog. I explored bringing in new writers. Ultimately, none of these were ideas I saw to completion. The Baseball Card Blog was retired. I added a link to the Wikipedia page for Casey at the Bat and nobody took it down. I stopped writing.
But I didn't stop collecting. Or reading others' blogs. I kept up with Cardboard Junkie (still my favorite). I started collecting the T118 (World's Greatest Explorers) and T218 (Mecca/Hassan Athletic Champions) sets. I am just about 50% complete on the 1962 Post Cereal set. I started collecting 1956 Topps, 1967 Who Am I?, and lots of miscuts, printing errors and blank fronts and backs. I even got in touch with The Baseball Reliquary in Monrovia, California, about donating a hard copy of the baseball-card Casey at the Bat, but still haven't got my act together to send it along to them.
And all of these things slowly made me want to start writing about it all again. Not religiously blogging three or four times a day so that it gets in the way of me living the rest of my life. But simply writing about baseball cards when I have the time.
I had to take a year off. Now it's time to dust off the cobwebs, tinker with the setup, and see how long it will take me to put together a set by simply buying packs.
BH
January 1, 2010
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