January 09, 2010

Nothin' But Doubles. How'd That Happen?

(I've been playing around with video, but haven't worked out the kinks yet. Perhaps I'll have it figured out next week.)

Pack 6 Guesses: Fernando Valenzuela, wait a minute... Jim Spencer?, for crissakes Dave Stieb, fuck no Dave Winfield, dammitt Butch Hobson
Pack 6 Actual: All correct!
0/5 NEW!

I can't believe it! It only took me six packs in to get all doubles. Well, this is interesting, because Valenzuela didn't come in the same pack as the other four stickers last go around.

Pack 7 Guesses: Mike Torrez, Gorman Thomas, Doug Corbett, Bill Stein, Butch Wynegar
Pack 4 Actual: All Correct!
0/5 NEW!

Now I'm starting to get worried. Two packs in a row, nothing but doubles. Although the sticker sequencing is interesting. Here's a guess: Some stickers were set as a "control" sequence, while others were randomized. They were probably printed that way in the sheet. Could this mean that there are double prints (DP) or even triple prints, just like their baseball card brethren?

Pack 8 Guesses: Tom Seaver, Jerry Remy, Dusty Baker, Mike Schmidt, Vida "Great Name for a Jam Band" Blue
Pack 8 Actual: All Correct!
5/5 NEW!

Great to get four out of five stars. Also great to finally get some National Leaguers.

Pack 9 Guesses: Oh no... Milt Wilcox, Steve Carlton, Nope, Nope, Chet Lemon on the White Sox
Pack 9 Actual: Wilcox, Carlton, Larry Gura, Mickey Rivers, Lemon
4/5 NEW!

Fascinating fact: Guys like Milt Wilcox, who embraced the Mustache 80s, appear clean-shaven for their sticker.

Pack 10 Guesses: Jack Morris Kick-Ass AL All-Star, Al Oliver, Art Howe, Dave Kingman, Bruce Benedict
Pack 10 Actual: All Correct!
1/5 NEW!

Most accurate way to describe my feelings towards Pack 10? Disappointment. Actually, more like 'Kick-Ass Disappointment.' Really, if you saved up $2.00, bought ten packs of stickers, and then proceeded to reel in not one or two but fifteen doubles, well, I don't care if I did get Jack Morris. I'd be disappointed.

Packs 6 through 10 yielded 10 new stickers and 15 doubles. Fourteen from the American League; One AL All-Star in gold foil; Two highlight stickers; Eight from the National League.

What's the probability of getting 15 doubles? Let's see.

There are 260 stickers in the set. I got 25 new stickers in the first five packs. That means there are 235 stickers I don't have, or 90.4% of the set. So if there's hypothetically a 90.4% chance I'll get a new sticker, then the chance of me getting a double is 9.6%, right?

But a 9.6% chance of pulling a double doesn't take into consideration the sequencing of stickers in a pack or sequencing of packs in a box, neither of which we've fully determined.

And it's here, at the precipice of the abstract, that my math fails. Without any evidence backing me up, I'd guess that the real probability of pulling a double hovers somewhere around 15% - 20%, obviously growing exponentially as I open more packs and add new stickers to my album.

More analysis (and maybe a video!) after Packs 11 through 15.


Casey White said...

Oh, I'd forgotten how glorious those All Stars from this sticker set were. In 1982, anything with shiny foil on it was extra rare and triple cool. When trading these stickers, you'd have to trade at least 10 of the regular player ones, even if all 10 were superstars, for just one of those awesome foil stickers.

MattR said...

Pack 8 was a really nice pack.